USD/CHF tumbles below 0.7900 on Trump's ceasefire announcement, FOMC Minutes in focus
- USD/CHF falls to near 0.7890 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- An announcement from Trump regarding a two-week ceasefire with Iran weighs on the US Dollar.
- The FOMC Minutes will be the highlight later on Wednesday.
The USD/CHF pair slumps to around 0.7890 during the early European session on Wednesday. Reports of a potential two-week ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran drag the US Dollar (USD) lower against the Swiss Franc (CHF).
US President Donald Trump said on a Truth Social post that Tuesday was “a big day for world peace.” Trump added that the US will be “helping with the traffic buildup” in the Strait of Hormuz and that “big money will be made” as Iran begins reconstruction. His remarks came after Iran accepted a two-week ceasefire as Trump said he would suspend attacks, subject to Tehran agreeing to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said that the Iranian military will coordinate passage through the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire. Negotiations between the US and Iran will be held in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Friday to finalize details.
The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) meeting in March will be released on Wednesday. The report could offer some hints about officials’ views on the recent energy shock caused by conflicts in the Middle East. Any hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials could support the Greenback in the near term.
Switzerland’s inflation rate jumped in March to the fastest pace in a year as the energy supply crunch caused by the war in the Middle East stoked the cost of heating oil. Hotter Swiss inflation has reduced pressure on the SNB to return to negative interest rates.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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