GBP/USD climbs above 1.3240 as Iran hopes dent US Dollar

• GBP/USD rises as ceasefire speculation weighs on the US Dollar.
• Softer US services data added pressure on the Greenback.
• Traders now await US inflation, jobless claims and Fed minutes.

The British Pound advanced by over 0.40% on Monday as US President Donald Trump extended Iran’s ultimatum until April 7, while rumours of a possible de-escalation weighed on the American Dollar. The GBP/USD trades around the 1.3240 figure at the time of writing.

Sterling gains as ceasefire rumors lift mood, soften Greenback

Risk appetite improved on Monday after Axios reported that US and Israeli officials, along with regional mediators, are discussing a 45-day ceasefire that could be extended if needed. Investors cheered the news, as depicted by US equities posting gains of 0.15% to 0.52%.

Data from the US showed that business activity deteriorated, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), as the Services PMI in March slipped from 56.1 to 54.0, below economists' forecasts of 54.9. The Prices Paid sub-component of the PMI rose to its highest level since October 2022, coming at 70.7, sparked by the rise of oil and fuel costs, commented Steve Miller, the Chair of the ISM’s Services Business Survey Committee.

Last week, strong US jobs data posted the largest job gains in 15 months and a dip in the Unemployment Rate. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 jobs in March, exceeding estimates of 60,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4% in February.

Consequently, expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates are none, according to data from Prime Market Terminal, which reflects that the Fed funds rate will remain at the 3.50%-3.75% range, steady during 2026.

Fed interest rate probabilities

Traders' eyes will be on the release of US inflation figures, jobless claims, and the Federal Reserve's last meeting minutes.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3239. The near-term bias is mildly bearish as spot holds below the downward-sloping resistance trend line from 1.3869 and trades under the clustered simple moving averages near 1.35, which now cap the upside. The persistent rejection along that descending line, combined with price pressure below the 50–100–200-day group, signals sellers retaining control, even as the longer-term rising support trend line from 1.3035 still prevents a steeper breakdown.

Initial resistance is now at 1.3320, where recent rebounds have stalled beneath the descending trend line, followed by 1.3435 and the moving-average zone around 1.35. A daily close above that 1.35 area would be needed to dilute the current bearish tone and re-open 1.36. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3187, with 1.3130 and the rising trend line from 1.3035 below; a clean break under that trend support would confirm a deeper bearish extension toward 1.3050.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)