EUR/USD edges lower to near 1.1500 as robust US jobs data, Middle East tensions support US Dollar
- EUR/USD declines to near 1.1515 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- The upbeat US jobs data and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East support the US Dollar.
- ECB policymakers highlighted that policy will remain restrictive until inflation sustainably returns to the 2% target.
The EUR/USD pair trades with mild gains around 1.1515 during the early Asian session on Monday. The stronger-than-expected US jobs data and heightened uncertainty in the Middle East boost demand for the US Dollar (USD) as a safe-haven.
US President Donald Trump on Sunday appeared to set a new deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. This came as Trump issued a profane message renewing threats to bomb power plants and other infrastructure if Tehran does not lift its effective blockade on the vital waterway.
Iranian officials noted that Iran will reciprocate attacks on its infrastructure and target similar infrastructure owned by the US or related to it. Tehran added that the strait will remain blocked until Iran receives pay for war damages.
The US economy added 178,000 jobs in March 2026, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. This figure followed a 133,000 decline (revised from -92,000) and came in above the market consensus of a 60,000 gain. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate edges lower to 4.3% in March from 4.4% in February, better than the estimates.
Hawkish tone of the European Central Bank (ECB) might help limit the EUR’s losses. The ECB has maintained a firm commitment to combating inflation. President Christine Lagarde and other Governing Council members have delivered consistent messages, emphasizing that policy will remain restrictive until inflation sustainably returns to the 2% target.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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