AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Gathers strength above 111.00 with bullish bias intact

• AUD/JPY trades in positive territory around 111.05 in Monday’s early European session. 
• The constructive outlook of the cross prevails above the 100-day EMA and bullish RSI indicator. 
• The initial support level is seen at 109.95; the immediate resistance level to watch is 112.20. 

The AUD/JPY cross holds positive ground near 111.05 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data provide some support to the China-proxy Aussie. China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 1.3% YoY in February, compared to an increase of 0.2% in January, the National Bureau of Statistics of China revealed on Monday. Meanwhile, China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) declined 0.9% YoY in February, versus a 1.4% fall in January, better than the expectations of -1.1%. 

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Monday that it’s hard to say how the conflict in the Middle East could affect Japan's economy. However, in the near term, ongoing geopolitical risks and fears of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could boost safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) in the near term. 

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, the near-term bias of AUD/JPY is bullish as price holds well above the 100-day exponential moving average near 105.50, confirming an established uptrend and sustained demand on dips. The latest candles track close to the upper Bollinger Band, underscoring persistent upside pressure rather than mean reversion, while the middle band around 109.95 rises in parallel with price. RSI around 61 stays above its midline without entering overbought territory, indicating solid bullish momentum with no immediate exhaustion signal.

Initial support emerges at the Bollinger middle band near 109.95, where a pullback would test trend resilience, followed by the lower band region around 107.70. A break below that moving average would weaken the bullish structure and open the way toward the rising 100-day EMA at 105.50. 

On the upside, immediate resistance aligns with the recent upper Bollinger area near 112.20, with a clear daily close above this zone extending the advance toward the 113.50 region. As long as price holds above 109.95, risk remains skewed to further gains rather than a sustained correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)