EUR: Will the ECB look through rising inflation? – ING

Notably EUR/USD is holding onto the gains made on yesterday's Washington Post report. We consider this a fair adjustment after EUR/USD overshot on the downside last week. And short-term fair value models – based largely on rate spreads – suggest EUR/USD could correct further to 1.05 if there was sufficient reason, ING’s FX analyst Chirs Turner notes.

EUR/USD can get back to 1.0460 and potentially 1.05

“Short EUR/USD has probably been one of the highest conviction FX trades in late 2024. Notably, EUR/USD could not make it back to the 1.0335 starting point when the tariff report first came out.”

“The FX options market suggests investors may be the most worried about an upside correction in EUR/USD since September. We read this from the one-week risk reversal – the price for a EUR/USD call over an equivalent EUR/USD put – which at 0.15% vols is now the highest since late September.”

“Data could drag EUR/USD back to 1.0460 and potentially 1.05 – all within an underlying EUR/USD bear trend.”