Oklo Is Down 86% From Its High. Will Shares Soar When Meta's Reactor Comes Online?
Key Points
Energy-intensive AI applications are driving investment in nuclear energy.
But shares of Oklo have struggled in 2026, with clear catalysts still far off.
- 10 stocks we like better than Oklo ›
Oklo (NYSE: OKLO) develops small modular reactors, or SMRs. These nuclear facilities are faster to build and have lower upfront capital needs than conventionally sized nuclear power plants.
To sustain growth, the AI industry needs a massive amount of new energy to power its data center infrastructure. This desperate need for more energy from big-budget AI companies has led to a surge in interest in SMR developers, including Oklo.
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Already, Meta Platforms has agreed to a 1.2 GW SMR system. Pre-construction is scheduled to begin in 2027. Full-scale construction is expected to start either in late 2028 or early 2029. Will the start of construction for Meta's SMR system help Oklo's stock price?
There's one major risk Oklo investors should understand.
Could Meta's SMR project with Oklo be delayed?
AI adoption continues to surge. The challenge is building enough data centers to meet that growth in demand. In recent weeks, AI stocks have corrected sharply as the pace and scale of the data center build-out come under question.
"AI demand remains strong," stresses research from Barclays. "What the market is questioning is funding, as hyperscalers keep lifting capex while free cash flow evaporates ."
Image source: Getty Images
As financing for AI projects comes under scrutiny, expect Oklo's cost of capital to rise. Already, a weak share price combined with a lack of profitability will likely force painful shareholder dilution. Any further deterioration in AI sentiment could force delays to its SMR project with Meta. That's particularly true, given that Oklo has not yet been approved by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to build a commercial SMR.
Note that even under Oklo's own timeline guidance, the project would not begin generating electricity until 2030 at the earliest, with full capacity not reached until 2034. Don't expect any meaningful updates regarding Oklo's deal with Meta anytime soon. And given current market sentiment, investors may be waiting even longer than expected.
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Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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