History Says Nvidia Stock Usually Rises in the Fourth Quarter -- It Has in 20 of the Last 27

Shares of Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) hit another record on Tuesday, Oct. 6, closing at $239.24. If history's any guide, the October-to-December quarter has usually been a good one for the artificial intelligence (AI) chip giant's stock.

Measured from the end of September to the end of December, Nvidia's shares rose in 20 of the 27 years from 1999 through 2025. The median change for all 27 fourth quarters was a gain of around 14%.

But the record comes with two caveats. Nvidia's stock has climbed in most quarters during this stretch, not just the last one of the year. From 2000 through 2025, for example, it also gained in 20 of 26 first quarters.

And two of the seven fourth quarters that went wrong cost shareholders over half their money.

I think the calendar matters much less here than the report Nvidia puts out in the middle of it.

Jensen Huang. Image source: Nvidia.

A report in the middle

Nvidia's fiscal year ends in late January, so its fiscal third quarter closes in late October. The report for that period tends to come in mid-to-late November, about halfway through the calendar fourth quarter.

That report also gives management's revenue outlook for the fiscal fourth quarter, which runs roughly from November through January.

Sure, even a great report doesn't promise a good quarter. Nvidia's fiscal third-quarter 2026 results, released Nov. 19, 2025, showed revenue up 62% year over year to $57.0 billion. Management also guided for $65.0 billion in the next quarter.

The stock dropped around 3% a day later. It closed the fourth quarter down 0.04% -- a paper-thin loss in a quarter when the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) gained around 3%.

What happens when the pattern breaks?

Nvidia's two worst fourth quarters broke the pattern for very different reasons. In 2000, the stock lost 60% as the dot-com crash pulled down tech stocks broadly. The Nasdaq Composite slid by around a third during the same three months. But Nvidia's shares were back above their late-September 2000 price by April 2001.

The 2018 decline was mainly Nvidia's own problem, and the November report made it far worse. By report day, shares had already fallen about 28% from their late-September close.

For the three months ended Oct. 28, 2018 (Nvidia's fiscal third quarter of 2019), revenue grew 21% year over year to $3.18 billion. But management forecast fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $2.70 billion, around 15% below what the company had just reported.

"Our near-term results reflect excess channel inventory post the cryptocurrency boom, which will be corrected," CEO Jensen Huang said in the earnings release.

Put simply, too many of Nvidia's chips sat unsold with distributors and retailers after demand from cryptocurrency miners cooled. Shares fell about 19% the day after the report and ended the quarter down 52%, versus a loss of about 18% for the Nasdaq. They didn't climb back above their late-September 2018 close till February 2020.

Notably, most of Nvidia's down fourth quarters lined up with a falling market. The Nasdaq fell in five of the seven. Only in 2020 and last year did Nvidia's shares drop while the index gained.

This year's bar is higher

Nvidia's business now looks nothing like it did in late 2018. For its fiscal second quarter of 2027 (which ended on July 26, 2026), revenue more than doubled, climbing 106% year over year to $96.2 billion. Management's forecast calls for $108.0 billion in fiscal Q3, plus or minus 2%.

That's the bar the fiscal third-quarter report needs to clear. Meeting the guide would mean growth of about 89% from the $57.0 billion Nvidia reported a year earlier, a step down from 106%. The forecast for the following quarter could matter even more to the stock than the quarter itself.

Nvidia's shares sell for around 15 times the consensus earnings estimate for fiscal 2028 (the year ending January 2028). Broadcom, another AI chipmaker, costs about 19 times its consensus earnings estimate for its next fiscal year.

True, a price-to-earnings ratio is only as good as the estimates behind it. But at that price, Nvidia's shares could arguably weather a weaker report than the past few.

So, does the calendar make Nvidia stock a buy right now? Not on its own. Twenty up years out of 27 mainly reflect a stock that's climbed in most quarters, whatever the season. And the worst years that broke the pattern saw a falling market, a weak forecast from Nvidia, or both.

At today's price, I'd consider buying shares for the growth Nvidia is delivering. The fourth quarter's history doesn't do much for that case.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Broadcom and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.