The Week Ahead: US September CPI and PPI Ahead, Major Wall Street Banks Kick Off Earnings Season With TSMC Earnings in Focus

TradingKey - In the coming week (October 12 to October 16), U.S. markets will enter one of October's most critical macro data and earnings windows. September U.S. CPI, PPI, retail sales, industrial production, and regional manufacturing indices will be released in quick succession, and the Federal Reserve will also publish its latest Beige Book. With the October 27–28 FOMC meeting drawing near, inflation and consumption data will directly influence market expectations regarding the timing of the next rate hike.

On the earnings front, next week will feature both financial and technology sector highlights. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) will kick off reports on Tuesday; Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), and BlackRock (BLK) will take over on Wednesday.

In the technology sector, the most notable highlight is TSMC (TSM), which will release its full third-quarter financial results on Thursday. The company previously reported record third-quarter revenue, and the net profit, gross margin, demand for advanced processes, AI business performance, and future capex guidance in its full report will serve as key signals to judge whether the U.S. AI and semiconductor rally can be sustained.

Major Events Preview

U.S. September CPI Report Approaches as Fed's October Policy Outlook Faces Key Test

On Wednesday (October 14), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September CPI at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

In August, U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year; core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 2.4% year-over-year. Energy prices climbed 2.1% month-over-month, driven by a 3.9% increase in gasoline prices, serving as a key factor behind the rebound in headline inflation.

Markets currently expect headline CPI for September to accelerate further to around 3.7% year-over-year, with core CPI rising approximately 2.5% year-over-year.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September, lifting the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4.00%. However, following recent slowdowns in employment and certain inflation indicators, market sentiment has shifted toward expecting the Fed to pause rate hikes at its late-October meeting, with any further policy tightening potentially delayed to December.

Therefore, the key focus of this CPI release lies not only in the headline year-over-year figure, but also in core services, housing, and goods prices. If both headline and core CPI come in above expectations, markets could price back in a higher probability of rate hikes in October or December, lending support to U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, while high-valuation tech stocks face heightened valuation pressure.

Conversely, if core CPI comes in significantly below expectations, the combination of slowing job growth and cooling inflation would likely reinforce expectations for the Fed to hold rates steady in October.

TSMC's Q3 Earnings Report Set for Release

On Thursday (October 15), TSMC will report its full third-quarter results for 2026 and host an earnings conference call.

In fact, third-quarter revenue figures have already been released in advance. TSMC's revenue from July to September reached approximately NT$1.49 trillion (around $46.7 billion), representing a year-over-year surge of roughly 50% to hit a record high, exceeding market consensus of around NT$1.46 trillion as well as the company's previous guidance of $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion.

As a result, market attention for next week's earnings report will shift primarily to profitability and forward guidance. The company previously guided for a third-quarter gross margin of 65%-67% and an operating margin of 56%-58%. Investors will closely monitor advanced process capacity utilization, AI accelerator demand, 2nm mass production progress, and capital expenditures.

Markets expect TSMC's third-quarter net profit to sustain robust growth. For U.S. equities, the significance of TSMC's earnings extends far beyond a single company. AI-related firms remain a key driver of S&P 500 earnings growth, and with TSMC positioned at the core manufacturing node of the AI chip supply chain, its commentary on future AI chip orders and capital expenditures will directly shape market perception of overall AI sector demand.

If management continues to raise AI demand forecasts while offering a strong outlook for advanced nodes and capex, it could further reinforce bullish expectations for U.S. AI chip and semiconductor equipment stocks. Conversely, if guidance on gross margins, orders, or capital spending turns cautious, markets may re-evaluate the growth momentum of the current AI capital spending cycle.

September PPI and Retail Sales Released on Same Day

Thursday (October 15) will also mark the most data-heavy day of next week for the U.S.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release September PPI at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. In August, final demand PPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 5.4% year-over-year, with goods prices climbing 1.1% month-over-month, indicating that cost pressures at the producer level remain elevated.

With the PPI coming a day after the CPI release, markets will assess whether upstream costs for raw materials, transportation, and services continue to pass through to consumers.

At the same time, the U.S. will also release September retail sales data.

Retail sales will serve as a key metric for gauging the resilience of U.S. consumer spending. If CPI and PPI remain elevated alongside robust retail sales, markets may conclude that "inflation remains elevated while demand stays strong," bolstering the case for the Fed to maintain its tight monetary policy stance.

On the other hand, if retail sales weaken significantly alongside cooling inflation, market attention could shift further toward the dampening effects of high interest rates on the U.S. economy and consumer purchasing power.

Fed's Beige Book Release to Highlight Real Economic Impact of High Interest Rates

At 2:00 p.m. on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release its latest Beige Book on economic conditions, providing updated regional insights ahead of the October 27-28 FOMC meeting.

Markets will focus heavily on regional business feedback regarding consumer spending, hiring, wages, capital expenditures, and prices.

Minutes from the September FOMC meeting revealed that while officials unanimously agreed on a 25-basis-point rate hike, opinions diverged on subsequent moves, with a majority believing another round of tightening might still be required within the year.

If the Beige Book continues to show rising input costs, steady consumer demand, and a resilient labor market, it could support hawkish officials advocating for further rate hikes. Conversely, if consumer spending, hiring, and manufacturing activity slow noticeably, the argument for pausing rate hikes in October will gain further traction.

Wall Street Bank Earnings Season Officially Kicks Off

On Tuesday (October 13), JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will report third-quarter results, officially launching the big-bank earnings season.

Markets will focus closely on net interest income, loan growth, deposit costs, credit losses, and investment banking and trading performance.

Analysts expect third-quarter profits at some major banks to sustain robust growth, driven largely by capital markets and trading activities. However, despite the recent surge in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, bank stocks have come under noticeable pressure, reflecting lingering market caution over funding costs and credit risks in a high-interest-rate environment.

High interest rates exert a dual effect on bank profitability. On one hand, higher asset yields can bolster net interest income; on the other hand, deposit costs, funding costs, and credit pressures may rise in tandem.

Therefore, in next week's bank earnings reports, management's commentary on loan demand, credit quality, and interest rate trends may carry far greater weight than single-quarter profit figures.

Core Schedule for the Week

Monday (October 12)

Key Events: Columbus Day

Monday is the Columbus Day federal holiday in the U.S. While the U.S. stock market will trade as usual, U.S. government operations and some bond market activities will be affected by the holiday.

With few economic data releases scheduled for the day, market focus may shift early to the major bank earnings season kicking off on Tuesday and Wednesday's CPI.

Tuesday (October 13)

Key Events: JPMorgan Chase Earnings, Goldman Sachs Earnings, Citigroup Earnings

The U.S. third-quarter earnings season officially enters its peak phase.

JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will report their earnings, with the market focusing heavily on net interest income, credit quality, trading, and investment banking.

Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth will also report results on the same day, making financials and healthcare the two main earnings storylines for U.S. stocks on Tuesday.

Wednesday (October 14)

Key Events: U.S. September CPI, Fed Beige Book

The U.S. will release September CPI data at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The market expects headline CPI to rise about 3.7% year-over-year, with core CPI rising about 2.5% year-over-year.

At 2:00 p.m., the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book, providing the latest reference on regional economic conditions ahead of the late-October FOMC meeting.

On the corporate front, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock will report their third-quarter results.

Thursday (October 15)

Key Events: TSMC Earnings, U.S. September PPI, September Retail Sales

Thursday will be one of the busiest trading days of the week.

TSMC will release its full third-quarter earnings report. Having already reported record quarterly revenue in advance, market focus will center on net profit, gross margin, AI demand, advanced process nodes, and future capital expenditure guidance.

At 8:30 a.m., the U.S. will simultaneously release September PPI, retail sales, and weekly initial jobless claims.

The New York Fed will also release the October Empire State Manufacturing Index, while the Philadelphia Fed will concurrently publish its October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey.

On the corporate front, Charles Schwab will release its third-quarter results.

Friday (October 16)

Key Events: U.S. September Industrial Production, September Import and Export Prices

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September Import and Export Price Indexes at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

The Federal Reserve will release September industrial production and capacity utilization data at 9:15 a.m.

Industrial production helps the market gauge activity in U.S. manufacturing, mining, and utilities, while capacity utilization serves as a key indicator of economic resource usage and potential price pressures.