SoftBank Stock Forecast: OpenAI Revenue Data Sparks Valuation Concerns, Can Shares Rebound After a Sharp Drop?

TradingKey - On October 8, Tokyo time, SoftBank Group closed down 4.28% at 6,040 yen (approximately $38.2). The Financial Times subsequently reported that OpenAI's annualized revenue as of the end of September was close to $50 billion, lower than the approximately $70 billion previously estimated by investors on an adjusted basis.

Following the report, SoftBank's stock fell by as much as 7.3% intraday on October 9 to 5,600 yen. By the close, SoftBank's decline narrowed to 3.92%, ending at 5,803 yen.

Reportedly, SoftBank's cumulative investment in OpenAI has reached $64.6 billion, holding an equity stake of about 13%. OpenAI's operational performance, financing conditions, and valuation changes have become key factors affecting the value of SoftBank's investment portfolio.

[Source: TradingView]

OpenAI Annualized Revenue Nears $50 Billion, Differing From Earlier $70 Billion Figure

According to a Financial Times report on October 8, OpenAI recently disclosed to investors that as of the end of September, the company's annualized revenue was close to $50 billion.

The previously reported media figure of approximately $70 billion used an adjusted metric, primarily intended for comparison with Anthropic, with the difference between the two numbers involving how revenue from cloud partner sales channels is recognized. Therefore, this discrepancy cannot be directly viewed as a decline in OpenAI's revenue, nor is it sufficient evidence that the company has lowered its growth expectations.

According to CNBC, OpenAI disclosed to investors that its overall third-quarter revenue run rate grew by 77%, while its enterprise business revenue run rate grew by 107%.

For SoftBank, the upcoming focus is whether revenue growth can improve cash flow. If OpenAI continues to raise capital to support computing power expenses, the valuation and terms of new financing rounds could impact the value of SoftBank's equity stake.

SoftBank completed its final $10 billion follow-on investment on October 1, fulfilling a total of $30 billion in additional investment arrangements for this round.

High Financing Costs Increase SoftBank's Funding Pressure

On September 24, SoftBank issued $10 billion in US dollar bonds and 1 billion euros in euro bonds, equivalent to approximately $11.1 billion at the announced exchange rate, to fund its final additional investment in OpenAI and for general corporate purposes. The coupon rates on the US dollar bonds ranged from 8.625% to 9.75%, while those on the euro bonds ranged from 7.125% to 8%.

The company had previously arranged for early repayment of the $25.9 billion outstanding balance under the bridge loan facility for the OpenAI investment, and confirmed on October 1 that all borrowings under the facility had been fully repaid. While long-term bonds reduce short-term repayment pressure, higher coupon rates increase the ongoing interest payment burden, meaning the group's cash reserves and investment returns remain key areas to watch.

On September 30, SoftBank completed the acquisition of all common shares of DigitalBridge for approximately $3.1 billion. The transaction had an enterprise value of approximately $4 billion when announced. DigitalBridge focuses on digital infrastructure investments, including data centers, cell towers, and fiber networks, and will continue to operate as an independently managed platform.

According to a report by the Financial Times, DigitalBridge plans to bring in external institutional capital to support projects such as data centers and power, broadening financing sources for SoftBank's AI infrastructure construction.

SoftBank's future stock price performance will also depend on the value of its Arm (ARM) holdings, exchange rate changes, and the group's financing costs. Whether OpenAI can sustain growth and improve cash flow, and whether SoftBank can control its interest burden, will be key focus areas in evaluating its investment returns and financial pressure.

SoftBank Stock Technical Analysis: Focus on 5,546-5,600 Yen Support Zone

[Source: TradingView]

On a post-split price basis, calculated from the March 23, 2026 low of 3,365 yen to the June 2 high of 9,074 yen, the Fibonacci 0.236, 0.382, 0.500, 0.618, and 0.786 retracement levels are approximately 7,727, 6,893, 6,220, 5,546, and 4,587 yen, respectively.

On October 8, SoftBank closed at 6,040 yen, breaking below the 0.500 retracement level of 6,220 yen; during intraday trading on October 9, it touched a low of 5,600 yen, showing weak short-term momentum.

To the upside, initial focus is on the previous session's close of 6,040 yen and the 6,220 yen retracement level. If the daily close reclaims and holds above 6,220 yen, the rebound could further extend to the 6,700–6,893 yen range; if it continues to break through and hold, the next focus will be around 7,727 yen.

To the downside, watch the 5,546–5,600 yen range, corresponding to the 0.618 retracement level and the October 9 intraday low, respectively. If the daily close falls below 5,546 yen, downside levels to monitor sequentially are the psychological key level of 5,000 yen and the 0.786 retracement level at 4,587 yen.