The 1 Chart That Nvidia Bears Don't Want You to See

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) shareholders have to be feeling pretty good these days. The only company in the world commanding a market cap north of $5 trillion came within a penny -- yes, a penny -- of hitting a new intraday all-time high on Friday.

A market laggard earlier this year, Nvidia's 25% gain so far in 2026 doubles the market's return. Zoom out, and Nvidia shares are a five-bagger over the last three years. This is also an 11-bagger over the past five years.

It's easy to get lost in the upticks, but I want to turn your attention to a stock chart that you don't see very often. It may seem bearish at first, but here is Nvidia's chart over the past five quarters -- with the earnings reports annotated. Spoiler alert: Nvidia bears aren't going to like it.

NVDA data: YCharts.

Marching to the beats of a different drummer

Check out the first four purple circles with the letter E inside. Those are the moments when Nvidia reported its quarterly results. The immediate market reaction to those four reports was to send Nvidia stock lower. That's bad, but follow the money. The stock would make all of that back -- and then some -- by the next time it reported.

The one time it didn't happen -- check out the fifth and final purple circle, which is lower than the fourth circle -- was the one time over the past five earnings seasons that the shares popped higher in response. Nvidia is once again approaching an all-time high, so heads it wins, tails it wins.

A rising tide lifts all chips

It's good to be the top dog in AI infrastructure. Nvidia provides data centers with the AI chips and accelerators they need to deliver speedy, thorough results. This appetite is only intensifying. You see that in the top-line growth that Nvidia has posted in each of those five purple circles over the past 15 months.

• Q2 FY 2026: 56%
• Q3 FY 2026: 63%
• Q4 FY 2026: 73%
• Q1 FY 2027: 85%
• Q2 FY 2027: 106%

This isn't just an accelerating revenue growth story, even though it is certainly impressive to see the world's most valuable company stepping on the gas these days. Nvidia has also consistently beaten Wall Street profit targets in that time. It also scores bonus points for the degree of those quarterly beats, which happen to also be accelerating over the past year.

Image source: Getty Images.

You can't spell G-A-I-N without AI in the middle

Nvidia keeps winning. Year-over-year revenue jumps won't always more than double the way it did in its latest quarter. Its normalized net margin won't always be north of 40%. Then again, that argument could also have been made a year ago, when revenue growth was half today's pace and normalized net margin remained south of 40%.

I have one final point that I don't think I've seen anyone make. CEO Jensen Huang thinks his stock is cheap. Last week, Nvidia's board authorized another $150 billion in share repurchases, a new record for corporate buybacks. Let's add some color to that claim.

Analysts see Nvidia trading for 15 times next year's earnings and less than 11 times next year's bottom-line forecast. Remember how I mentioned that Nvidia was an 11-bagger over the past five years? Let's reframe that in a fresh way.

Exactly five years ago -- on Oct. 5, 2021 -- Nvidia stock closed at $20.45. Analysts see it earning $21.09 per share. You could have bought Nvidia five years ago for less than what it will earn in a single year, seven years later. Time has been kind to Nvidia and its shareholders.

Rick Munarriz has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.