Where Will Nvidia Stock Be in 2030? Three Scenarios for the World's Most Valuable AI Company

To figure out where Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) could be in 2030, we can look at three different scenarios. In the first scenario, AI demand slows, leading the company to underperform expectations. Next, we can look at what happens if the stock meets analyst expectations, and where it could trade if it exceeds them.

Scenario 1: underperformance

Given the roughly five- to six-year useful lifespan of graphics processing units (GPUs), Nvidia has a similar replacement hardware cycle as Apple. Meanwhile, the wide moat it has established in AI model training and its positioning in inference should keep its revenue pretty stable even if AI infrastructure growth slows significantly.

Although AI growth doesn't have the limitations of past tech cycles, such as smartphones, the internet, and PCs, which are bound by individual consumption, growth could be slowed by things like power constraints and funding. The collapse of OpenAI and/or Anthropic would also put a major dent in spending, although I don't currently view that as a likely possibility given that both are backed by some of the largest and most powerful tech companies on the planet.

If growth slows, the risk is likely more around gross margin compression, especially with the rise of AMD and custom AI chips. If we assume revenue and expenses hold around fiscal 2028 levels, but gross margin falls from about 75% to 60%, Nvidia's earning per share (EPS) could settle around $13.50 in 2031.

Apply a 10-times forward price-to-earning (P/E) to the stock, and you have a $135 price. That's about 40% downside.

However, I view this as the least likely scenario, as I think the AI infrastructure market will continue to grow and Nvidia will continue to get more than its fair share of the market.

Scenario 2: meeting expectations

One thing Nvidia has rarely done in the past few years is meet expectations, having far exceeded even the most optimistic forecasts. However, as the AI infrastructure market matures and competition increases, there is the possibility the company just meets future analyst estimates.

Analysts currently expect Nvidia's revenue to rise from $411.6 billion in fiscal year 2027 (ending January 2027) to $1.21 trillion in fiscal year 2031. Meanwhile, its adjusted EPS is projected to jump from $9.31 to $24.79 during the same stretch. Revenue growth is then forecast to settle into the low double-digit percentage range thereafter.

Given that, I think the stock could maintain its current forward P/E multiple of about 15, which equates to a stock price of approximately $370 by the end of 2030. That's about 60% upside.

Image source: The Motley Fool

Scenario 3: exceeding estimates

Given the current AI boom, I believe there is a good chance that analysts are greatly underestimating Nvidia's earnings power. Demand for compute remains insatiable, and given the strong returns cloud computing and neocloud companies are seeing on their AI infrastructure investments, there is no reason for them to slow their spending.

Meanwhile, Nvidia remains the best-positoned semiconductor company in the space. CUDA, which lets apps use the processing power of its GPUs, gives it a wide moat in AI training, while its acquisition of Groq, a chip company, helps give it a differentiated inference solution. It has also, importantly, locked in a much-needed supply of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and fabrication capacity, which basically assure its leadership position.

Based on a more aggressive model, which includes its share count shrinking 2% a year from buybacks, I see Nvidia potentially generating nearly $41.47 in adjusted EPS is fiscal 2031.

Place a forward P/E of 15 on the stock, and it would trade at about $625, representing more than 2.5-fold upside from its current price.

Of the three scenarios, I think this could be the most likely given history of being ahead of the AI curve.

Geoffrey Seiler has positions in Advanced Micro Devices. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Apple, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.