TradingKey Daily Market Briefing: US Crypto Bill Stalls, Bitcoin Drops Below $76,000, COIN Tumbles 10%, Market Focuses on Fed Decision

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TradingKey - On September 15, Eastern Time, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell for a second consecutive trading day. International oil prices surged again, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to its highest level since 2007, while investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision scheduled for Wednesday. The market currently prices in more than a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike this time, with energy prices and long-term interest rates continuing to be key variables affecting risk assets.

At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.63% to 52,098.20; the S&P 500 Index lost 0.45% to 7,585.73; and the Nasdaq Composite Index declined 0.78% to 25,981.57.

Among individual stocks, crypto-concept stocks fell significantly, with Coinbase (COIN) dropping 10.1% and MicroStrategy (MSTR) falling 5.36%, primarily impacted by weakening Bitcoin and the U.S. Senate's failure to advance a cryptocurrency regulatory bill.

In commodities, international oil prices continued to rise. Brent crude (UKOIL) rose 1.88% to settle at $108.47; WTI crude (USOIL) gained 3.54% to settle at $105.49. Saudi Arabia's Yanbu Red Sea export port suspended crude loading, while Saudi Arabia canceled some late-September crude cargoes for European customers, further elevating supply risks.

In precious metals, gold (XAUUSD) extended its weakness. Spot gold fell 0.11% to $4,294.12. Rising oil prices heightened inflation concerns, while a stronger U.S. dollar and Treasury yields increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC) fell 3.25% to $75,644. Crypto assets and related stocks moved lower after the U.S. Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act. The bill was intended to establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets, but the procedural vote received only 50 votes in favor, falling short of the 60 votes needed to advance the legislation.

Market News

Fed interest rate decision imminent; market expectations for a rate hike rise to around 95%. The Fed has begun its two-day policy meeting and will announce its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday Eastern Time. Markets currently widely expect the target range for the federal funds rate to be raised by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, which would be the first rate hike in over three years. Over the past month, market pricing for a Fed rate hike this month has rapidly risen from around 33% to 94.5%.

Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to raise interest rates two more times this year. Morgan Stanley has shifted its interest rate forecast to a more hawkish stance, expecting the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in September, followed by another 25-basis-point hike in December. The firm believes that U.S. inflation is cooling slower than previously expected, while rising energy prices could further increase second-round price pressures.

Saudi Arabia cancels some European crude orders; loading halted at Yanbu port. Saudi Arabia has notified some European customers of the cancellation of late-September crude cargoes, while crude loading at its Red Sea Yanbu export port has been suspended. Following damage to the Saudi East-West pipeline, significant uncertainty remains regarding the recovery timeline for this route, with market participants estimating repair times ranging from a few days to up to eight weeks.

U.S. Senate fails to advance the Clarity Act, dealing a setback to crypto industry regulatory legislation. The Senate concluded a procedural vote on Tuesday with 50 votes in favor and 49 against, failing to reach the 60-vote threshold. Four Republican senators joined all Democratic senators in opposing the advancement of the bill. As the U.S. Congress will soon enter a recess for the November midterm elections, the difficulty of advancing the bill in the short term has significantly increased.

U.S. regulators demand Tesla explain Cybercab safety certification. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has asked Tesla (TSLA) to answer questions by September 30 regarding whether the Cybercab properly completed its safety self-certification. Regulators are focusing on whether temporary manual driving controls were ever installed on the vehicle, and how the Cybercab meets current federal safety standards without a steering wheel, brake pedals, and rearview mirrors.

Coca-Cola plans to invest $10 billion in the U.S. by 2030. Coca-Cola (KO) announced it will invest $10 billion in U.S. infrastructure from 2026 to 2030, covering projects previously announced in California, Colorado, Alabama, New York, and other areas. The company stated that this investment scale includes spending by Coca-Cola and its bottling partners.

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