Too many people don't appreciate that Social Security's surplus is being depleted.
If the program isn't strengthened, benefits will shrink -- significantly.
The problem can be fixed, if Congress acts.
Commemorating the 90th anniversary of Social Security, a program signed into law by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1935, the folks at AARP commissioned a survey to assess Americans' understanding of this vital program.
The survey's findings were both surprising and alarming. Here's a look at some of them.
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Let's start with a big problem that the survey exposed: Fully 64% of survey respondents didn't understand the impact of Social Security's surplus running dry. When asked about what will happen once the Social Security Trust Funds are no longer able to pay full benefits, 34% chose the correct answer: Benefits will be paid at a reduced level. But 36% of respondents thought that no benefits would be paid. Another 28% said neither was true, or that they just didn't know. Some 47% thought that benefits would be cut at least in half -- which is wrong. Yikes.
Here's the correct answer: The Trustees of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds, in their latest report, for 2025, have estimated that:
The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will be able to pay 100 percent of total scheduled benefits until 2033, unchanged from last year's report. At that time, the fund's reserves will become depleted and continuing program income will be sufficient to pay 77% of total scheduled benefits.
So benefits won't fall to zero, and they won't be slashed in half. But they will drop significantly -- enough to wreak havoc on millions of retirements.
Here's some good news: There are multiple ways to fix Social Security. For example, the current tax rate on workers' earnings, which feeds the fund, could be increased a bit. Currently, most workers pay 6.2%, with their employers kicking in another 6.2%, for a total of 12.4%.
Another possible fix is taxing high earners more. Right now, there's an earnings cap, beyond which income is not taxed for Social Security; it's adjusted annually and the cap is $184,500 for 2026. So if one person's yearly income is $315,000 and another's is $6 million, each will only pay taxes on their first $184,500 of earnings. Taxing more of their income -- or simply taxing it all -- can send a lot more money into Social Security's coffers. Many see this as a sensible fix -- because, after all, most of us are taxed on all our income, so why shouldn't that be the case for everyone?
Still, all these fixes need action by Congress, which may or may not happen. So it's smart to plan for reduced Social Security benefits to avoid getting blindsided. Remember, too, that there are ways to beef up your benefits, such as to delay claiming them until age 70 -- which is the best move for most people.
The AARP survey revealed additional surprises. For example:
It's a good idea to get very familiar with Social Security, so that you can plan for it well and make sound decisions regarding your potential benefits. Above all, don't expect the program to fully support you in your old age, and be aware that you might be best served by setting up multiple income streams for retirement.
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