Prediction: Rivian Stock Could Soar in the Next 3 Years If These 2 Things Happen

Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) is attempting to follow Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) path. First, introduce a high-end vehicle; then ramp up production; introduce a mass-market vehicle; and then focus on profitability. Rivian is preparing to introduce a mass-market vehicle in 2026 to attract less-affluent customers to its brand. This could be a big turning point for the company.

Rivian has made big strides

Tesla basically created the electric vehicle (EV) market, so it didn't face any material competition as it worked through its business plans. Rivian has had to contend with Tesla, other EV start-ups, and major automakers, all of which have entered the space in some capacity. And yet Rivian has reached the point where it is ready to introduce a mass-market vehicle, the R2, in 2026.

Image source: Rivian.

Notably, Rivian turned a gross profit in 2025. That isn't the same as positive earnings, but it means that the carmaker produced more revenue from selling its cars than it cost to produce them. It is the first step toward positive earnings and highlights the company's manufacturing success.

The two big things that need to happen now

It will take several quarters to see how well received the R2 is by customers. But if sales are brisk, the company will take the next big step toward becoming sustainably profitable. Investors should be watching this product launch closely because it could make or break Rivian's business.

Assuming the R2 launch goes well, Rivian will be able to ramp up production and spread its costs across more vehicles. Having already proven it can turn a gross profit on its manufacturing operations, the costs to cover now are research and development, and sales, general, and administrative costs. R&D costs should come down after R2 is in production, so the nut to crack could be smaller than it appears.

Assuming Rivian generates positive earnings, the stock would likely rocket higher. A string of positive quarters would likely propel the shares even further. Investors monitoring the company's income statement should continue to do so, because that's where the second big stock catalyst will appear.

This is Rivian's time to shine

The next three years will be pivotal to Rivian's future. If the R2 launch is strong and the company turns a profit, the sky could be the limit for the stock. That said, only more aggressive investors should probable buy Rivian, since falling short of these two things could turn the shares into an investment dud.

Reuben Gregg Brewer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.