This Beaten-Down Growth Stock Could Soar 30%, According to Wall Street

Grail (NASDAQ: GRAL), a developer of multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests, was spun off from Illumina (NASDAQ: ILMN) in June 2024. Its stock started trading at $13.95 per share, set a record high of $116.06 on Jan. 22, 2026, but now trades at about $60.

Most of Grail's decline occurred in a single day in February, after its largest NHS England trial for its flagship blood test, Galleri, missed its primary endpoint. That failure drove Canaccord Genuity, which had been bullish on Grail, to reduce its Street-high price target from $105 to $80.

However, Grail's stock would still need to rise more than 30% to hit that reduced price target. Should contrarian investors take a chance on Grail's unloved stock today?

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Why is Grail a divisive investment?

Grail's Galleri blood test is designed to detect signals from dozens of cancers before any symptoms appear. It could potentially combine individual cancer tests, such as mammograms and colonoscopies, into a single blood draw.

The FDA granted Galleri a Breakthrough Device designation in 2019 to expedite its regulatory review, but its Premarket Approval (PMA) submission hasn't yet been approved. That's why the NHS England trial's results this February disappointed its investors and crushed its stock.

The bulls still believe Galleri could have a massive total addressable market (TAM) if it becomes a standard screening service. The bears argue that it's just an expensive science experiment. Without a full FDA approval, Galleri is primarily sold on a cash-only basis (at $749 to $949 per test) to affluent customers, certain employers, hospital pilots, and telehealth programs.

From 2023 to 2025, Grail's revenue rose from $93 milion to $147 million, and it narrowed its net loss from $1.47 billion to $408 million. Analysts expect Grail's revenue to rise 25% to $224 million, with a wider loss of $485 million in 2027, and to grow 27% to $285 million, with a slightly narrower loss of $481 million in 2028. Grail is still growing within its niche market -- but with a market cap of $2.56 billion, it isn't a bargain at 14 times this year's sales.

What could happen over the next few years?

Over the next few years, Galleri's sales could soar if the FDA approves it and receives more coverage from private insurance and Medicare plans. However, the results from its NHS trial in England suggest those two catalysts won't kick in anytime soon.

That trial, which included approximately 142,000 people between the ages of 50 and 77, was aimed at demonstrating that people who used Galleri would get fewer late-stage cancers (Stage III and IV) than those who didn't. However, there wasn't a statistically significant reduction in those late-stage cancers.

Those results cracked the bullish thesis for the stock, which had been based on the idea that Galleri could shift cancer diagnosis earlier at scale across large populations. It wasn't a total failure, since Galleri users had fewer Stage IV cancers detected, and it made earlier (Stage I and II) detections in some of the deadliest cancers. While those findings were positive, they couldn't offset the fact that the trial still missed its primary endpoint.

Looking ahead, analysts expect Grail's revenue to rise 25% to $224 million with a wider loss of $485 million in 2027, and for its revenue to grow 27% to $285 million with a slightly narrower loss of $481 million in 2028. We should take those estimates with a grain of salt, but they indicate it will remain a speculative growth stock that could be difficult to value in this volatile market.

Is it the right time to buy Grail's stock?

Grail's stock is still an all-in bet on an unproven -- but potentially game-changing -- blood test. It could generate multibagger gains if the FDA approves Galleri and insurance companies embrace it, but I wouldn't touch it until a few more green shoots appear.

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Grail and Illumina. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.