Canada: Sector risks under USMCA review – NBC

National Bank of Canada (NBC) analysts highlight that Canada’s aggregate tariff burden still looks relatively low versus peers, but warns this advantage is eroding. They stress that headline averages mask significant sectoral and regional vulnerabilities, particularly in manufacturing, and that investors should assess tariff exposure through a detailed provincial and industry lens as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review approaches.

Manufacturing exposed as tariff gap narrows

"While customs data reveal a globally favourable tariff rate applied to Canada vs other nations, this gap has narrowed."

"These data also fail to capture trade that has been shifted (or omitted entirely) as damage sets in."

"Sectoral exposures—particularly in manufacturing—continuing to see outsized negative impacts."

"Relatedly, we caution against complacency in regard to Canada’s national tariff hit."

"To this end, we stress the importance of looking at Canada’s tariff exposure through a regional / sectoral lens."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)