USD: Higher bar for recovery after payrolls – ING

ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky and Chris Turner note that strong US payrolls data triggered a hawkish Federal Reserve repricing but did not deliver a lasting boost to the Dollar. They argue this reflects persistent strategic bearishness on the greenback and say more positive US data, including possible CPI surprises, is needed for a sustained USD recovery, with DXY expected to stabilise near 97.0.

Strong jobs data fails to lift USD

"There is good and bad news for the dollar after yesterday’s payrolls. The good one is intuitive: job numbers were good. Unemployment declined to 4.3%, payrolls doubled the consensus at 130k, and wage growth was stronger than expected."

"The bad news for the dollar is that it should have rebounded more on the jobs data. Half of the initial USD rally reverted quickly, and that was not due to second thoughts on jobs figures: short-term dollar rates rose and stayed up. We instead read that as a sign markets remain minded to sell USD rallies on the back of longer-term considerations."

"This means the bar for a USD recovery is higher: more good data is needed, for a start."

"Lower jobless claims today shouldn’t be enough, and some upward CPI surprises tomorrow are probably necessary to bring the dollar sustainable support. For today, we expect some stabilisation in DXY around 97.0."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)