Bitcoin’s Record Miner Sell-Off Casts Shadow Over Ceasefire-Fueled Rebound

Bitcoin miners dumped a record 40,000 BTC in the first quarter of this year — more than the entirety of 2025 combined and well above the 20,000 BTC sold in the panic following the Terra collapse in mid-2022. That number sits quietly beneath the surface of what otherwise looks like a recovering market.

Miners Signal Trouble Even As Prices Climb

The sell-off came as mining difficulty dropped 2.4% to 135 trillion, while network hashrate climbed back from roughly 978 exahashes per second to 992 EH/s this month, according to data from Glassnode.

When producers sell at record pace during a difficulty drop, it points to one thing: tight margins. The economics of mining haven’t recovered the way the price chart might suggest, and any sustained move above $80,000 would have to absorb continued selling from that same group.

Bitcoin was trading at $76,827 on Tuesday noon, up 1.4% over 24 hours, as Iran confirmed it would send a delegation to Pakistan for a second round of ceasefire talks.

Ether gained 1.18% to reach $2,311. XRP rose 1.2% to $1.42. Solana trailed the pack, up just 0.9% on the day and down 1% for the week.

The broader market moved in the same direction. The MSCI All Country World Index added 0.1% after pausing on Monday, with Asian equities leading the charge and the regional tech index gaining 2.38%.

Brent crude slipped 0.7% to $94.80 a barrel. Gold fell 0.6% to around $4,800. Silver dropped 1% to $78.89. Treasuries and the dollar were largely flat.

A Deadline That Markets Can’t Ignore

The two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran expires Wednesday evening, Washington time. US President Donald Trump said Monday he does not plan to extend it.

Markets are now priced around that deadline. Three vessels attempted passage through the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, with American and Iranian blockades still active — the first real test of whether the waterway is clearing before any agreement is signed.

Bitcoin has lagged equities throughout this stretch. The MSCI ACWI has been on an 11-day rally that stumbled only once since de-escalation began. Bitcoin, by contrast, spent that same period crawling back from below $75,000 to just above $76,000.

Spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in $996 million last week, according to SoSoValue. Ethereum spot ETFs brought in $276 million over the same period. That institutional buying has kept a floor under prices even as miners push supply into the market.

Research firm Kaiko said a clean break above $76,000 would open a path toward $85,000. Analysts at K33 flagged that same level as a potential short squeeze trigger. On the downside, a slide back below $75,000 — if Wednesday’s deadline passes without a deal — remains the key risk traders are watching.

Bitcoin’s ceasefire rally gave the alpha crypto a lift. The miners are using it to sell. Until that changes, the rebound has a floor but no clear roof.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView