Ripple Price Forecast: XRP pressured as exchange reserves grow

• XRP pulls back for the second consecutive day, holding above $1.30 support on Tuesday.
• Exchange reserves rise above 2.75 billion XRP, suggesting incoming selling pressure.
• XRP’s recovery potential is limited amid fading retail interest and muted ETF activity.

Ripple (XRP) is trading under pressure on Tuesday and holding support above $1.30 at the time of writing. Its near-term bias has remained largely bearish amid the war in the Middle East. Moreover, sentiment remains extremely weak in the broader crypto market, as reflected in muted institutional activity and suppressed retail demand.

Growing exchange reserves cap XRP’s recovery potential

XRP exchange reserves are edging higher as the price wobbles, keeping holders on edge. CryptoQuant data shows that tokens held in known exchange addresses averaged near 2.76 billion XRP on Monday, up from 2.74 billion XRP on Sunday.

Growing exchange reserves mean that more holders are moving their coins from self-custody onto exchanges, intending to sell. This activity increases the supply available for sale in the open market, often pressuring prices and leading to declines.

At the same time, institutional and retail demand remains significantly suppressed, as observed with muted activity in XRP spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). SoSoValue data shows that US-listed spot XRP ETFs remained silent on Monday with zero flows recorded.

Cumulative inflows stand at $1.21 billion with net assets under management averaging $941 million. If risk appetite fails to improve and market sentiment remains weak, XRP’s recovery will be limited, favoring a persistent bearish trend.

XRP also faces suppressed retail demand, as reflected by futures Open Interest (OI) shrinking to $2.38 billion on Tuesday, from $2.47 billion the previous day. Since OI reflects the notional value of outstanding futures and options contracts, persistent declines indicate investors are losing conviction and are unwilling to open new positions. Ultimately, this deprives the underlying asset of the ability to sustain gains.

Technical outlook: XRP at risk of extending bearish trend

XRP is trading above $1.30 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The remittance token remains locked in a corrective phase below a long-term descending trendline, with price action entrenched under the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which cluster between roughly $1.42 and $1.84. This configuration maintains a clear bearish near-term bias, as repeated failures near the 50-day EMA in recent sessions have given way to lower closes.

Momentum indicators back this downside tilt, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) holding below the signal line in negative territory and the negative histogram contracting only modestly on the daily chart, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) extends below 40, signaling persistent selling pressure rather than an oversold inflection.

XRP's immediate resistance lies around $1.33, where recent rebound attempts have stalled, followed by $1.35 and the 50-day EMA at $1.42. A break of the latter would open a move toward the $1.45 area and then the $1.52–$1.54 band. On the downside, initial support is seen at the recent floor around $1.30, with a break lower exposing $1.28 and then $1.25 as deeper retracement levels within the broader downtrend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)