Gold struggles as rising US Treasury yields outweigh dovish Fed repricing
- Gold remains subdued as a stronger US Dollar and surging Treasury yields limit demand.
- Softer-than-expected US inflation reduces October Fed rate-hike bets, offering limited support to Gold.
- The daily setup remains bearish while XAU/USD trades below the Bollinger middle band.
Gold (XAU/USD) treads water on Thursday as a stronger US Dollar (USD) and soaring US Treasury yields limit the upside. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,170, up 0.30% on the day, as the precious metal struggles to build on its early recovery.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, climbs to a fresh year-to-date high near 101.85. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rises to around 5.34%, its highest level since 2002.
Higher Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Gold, while a stronger US Dollar makes the precious metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
The advance in the US Dollar and Treasury yields comes even as traders scale back expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates this month following mixed US economic data released on Wednesday.
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index showed that inflation moderated more than expected in August. Core PCE inflation rose 0.2% MoM, below the 0.3% forecast, while the annual rate remained unchanged at 3.0%, undershooting expectations of 3.3%.
However, an upward revision to US economic growth highlighted the continued resilience of the world’s largest economy. Annualized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 2.2% in the second quarter, above the 1.5% growth expected by economists.
According to TD Securities, the latest PCE and GDP revisions were "a mixed bag with hawkish backward adjustments to growth and dovish adjustments to inflation." However, the firm stresses that "the underlying trend is the key story," with "robust growth with rising inflation risks" expected to continue to dominate the Fed's outlook.
The CME FedWatch Tool shows that traders now see around a 37% probability that the US central bank will raise interest rates at its October 27-28 meeting, down from 70% earlier this week.
The dovish repricing offers some support to Gold, although it has done little to prevent the US Dollar and Treasury yields from advancing. Resilient economic growth gives the Fed more room to tackle inflation, which remains above its 2% target, and keeps another rate hike later this year on the table. Meanwhile, the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz keeps Oil prices elevated and inflation risks tilted to the upside, supporting the case for tighter monetary policy.
Looking ahead, Thursday’s US economic calendar features weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)and speeches from Fed officials, ahead of Friday’s closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
Technical Analysis:
On the daily chart, XAU/USD maintains a bearish near-term bias as it sits below the 20-day Bollinger Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,301. The metal is also capped well beneath the upper Bollinger band at $4,471, keeping rallies contained while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 40 and a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading both hint at limited bullish momentum and a corrective tone within a weakening trend, as suggested by the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 19.
On the downside, immediate support emerges at the lower Bollinger band near $4,131, ahead of the horizontal floor at $4,100, with a deeper bearish extension exposing the $4,000 level. On the topside, recovery attempts would first face resistance at the 20-day Bollinger SMA at $4,301, followed by the upper band at $4,471, while a stronger bullish reversal would only take shape on a sustained break above the structural barrier at $4,700.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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