WTI declines below $97.00 as markets await Trump-Xi talks outcome
- WTI price loses ground to near $96.70 in Thursday’s early European session.
- Traders will closely monitor the Trump-Xi summit outcome.
- Global oil supply to fall below demand this year due to the Iran war, according to the IEA.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $96.70 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The WTI price edges lower as traders await the outcome of the US President Donald Trump-Chinese President Xi Jinping summit in Beijing later on Thursday and Friday.
Xinhua News Agency reported on Thursday that Xi Jinping told US CEOs accompanying Trump on a Beijing visit that China's door would only open wider, and that he believed US companies would have more opportunities in the country.
Additionally, Trump is expected to encourage Xi to push Tehran, a Chinese ally, to agree to a peace deal and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint vital to oil trade.
The meeting came two days after the US president warned that Iran’s response to the US proposal was unsatisfactory. Trump also said that the ongoing ceasefire was on life support and threatened to restart the bombing of the country. Any positive developments surrounding the US-China talks could drag the WTI price lower in the near term.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated on Wednesday that global oil supply will fall short of total demand this year as the Iran war wreaks havoc on Middle East oil production and drains inventories at an unprecedented pace.
The IEA forecasts overall global oil supply will fall by around 3.9 million barrels per day (bpd) across 2026 due to the war, slashing its previous forecast, which had projected a 1.5 million bpd drop.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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