Brent: Negotiation risks keep energy outlook fragile – MUFG

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan notes that Brent Oil has dropped to around US$100 as the Dollar weakened on signs of US–Iran talks, but he stresses that negotiations are likely to be very difficult. He highlights that reported US proposals include sanctions relief and nuclear concessions, yet Iran’s hardline stance and regional sensitivities keep the risk of renewed Oil volatility elevated.

Brent reacts to fragile Iran talks

"Brent oil prices fell to US$100/bbl while the Dollar weakened, as President Trump signalled that Iran had offered a “present” as a show of good faith in negotiations he claimed are ongoing. It is unclear what this gift is, but he said that it is “worth a tremendous amount of money”. Meanwhile, the NY Times and other news outlets reported that the US has sent a 15-point proposal to Iran aimed at ending the conflict, while also proposing a one-month ceasefire in the midst of negotiations."

"We are ultimately cautious in reading too much into what the US side is claiming at this point in time. For one, Iran seems likely to toughen its negotiating stance including continued control over the Strait of Hormuz and among other key demands, and it’s unclear how regional Gulf states and Israel will take the deal including the US’ ultimate role in the Strait. "

"Second, the US is reportedly sending in its elite 82nd Airborne unit even in the midst of purported negotiations, raising continued risk of military intervention and boots on the ground. "

"Third, with the regime in Iran now more hardline and dominated by the IRGC including appointing Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr as the new chief of the Supreme National Security Council, the prospects of Iran actually accepting these terms seem quite remote."

"Ultimately we continue to think that negotiations will be very difficult, and hence our message to clients in Asia is to look to engage in some additional hedges if better levels in markets allow and/or reduce some risk as we head into the weekend. "

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)