WTI steadies near $58 as supply glut fears, US-China trade tensions weigh
- WTI US Oil price steadies around $58.25, as fears of a global supply surplus limit any recovery.
- Trade tensions between the United States and China intensify, raising concerns about global Oil demand.
- Investors await the American Petroleum Institute's weekly Crude Oil stock report due later on Wednesday.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $58.30 on Wednesday, up 0.30% at the time of writing, after regaining some lost ground. However, the commodity remains on the defensive, pressured by escalating trade tensions between the United States (US) and China and by warnings from the International Energy Agency (IEA) about a potential massive supply glut in 2026.
The IEA estimates that global Oil supply growth could outpace demand by nearly 4 million barrels per day next year, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) ramp up output while consumption remains sluggish. This outlook weighs on market sentiment and limits the WTI price's ability to recover.
On the trade front, relations between Washington and Beijing have deteriorated again. The world’s two largest Oil consumers have decided to impose additional port fees on cargo shipments between them, a measure likely to increase shipping costs and disrupt freight flows. The US began collecting these fees on October 14, and China responded with similar levies on American vessels. This escalation heightens fears of weakening global energy demand.
Meanwhile, traders are awaiting the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly Crude Oil inventory report, due later on Wednesday. A sharp build in inventories would reinforce concerns about oversupply, while a decline could provide temporary relief to Oil prices.
In the background, geopolitical risks remain a mild supporting factor. US President Donald Trump’s comments on Sunday about the possible delivery of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine have reignited concerns about additional sanctions on Russian energy exports. Such risks could, at least in the short term, help contain the downside pressure on WTI US Oil prices.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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