AUD/USD Price Forecast: Rising oil prices push antipodeans under pressure
- AUD/USD slumps to near 0.7000 as higher oil prices weigh on the Australian Dollar.
- The withdrawal of US non-emergency personnel from Gulf has prompted risks of fresh escalation in Middle East tensions.
- Investors keenly await the preliminary Australia-US PMI data for October.
The Australian Dollar underperforms its major currency peers, except the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), on Thursday. Against the US Dollar (USD), the antipodean is down 0.4% to near the psychological level of 0.7000.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.30% | 0.23% | -0.85% | -0.03% | 0.48% | 0.55% | -0.32% | |
| EUR | -0.30% | -0.08% | -1.14% | -0.34% | 0.17% | 0.24% | -0.65% | |
| GBP | -0.23% | 0.08% | -1.07% | -0.30% | 0.24% | 0.31% | -0.56% | |
| JPY | 0.85% | 1.14% | 1.07% | 0.80% | 1.33% | 1.37% | 0.51% | |
| CAD | 0.03% | 0.34% | 0.30% | -0.80% | 0.52% | 0.60% | -0.29% | |
| AUD | -0.48% | -0.17% | -0.24% | -1.33% | -0.52% | 0.06% | -0.80% | |
| NZD | -0.55% | -0.24% | -0.31% | -1.37% | -0.60% | -0.06% | -0.84% | |
| CHF | 0.32% | 0.65% | 0.56% | -0.51% | 0.29% | 0.80% | 0.84% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Risk-perceived currencies have come under pressure due to surging oil prices amid fears of fresh escalation in Middle East tensions. As of writing, the WTI Oil price is up 1.5% to near $99.00.
Analysts at Commerzbank report that Middle East tensions “intensified after a drone attack on Saudi Arabia's Shaybah oil field killed two people and injured two others,” but note that the impact on crude was ultimately contained. They highlight that “oil prices briefly jumped on reports suggesting a wider withdrawal of US diplomatic personnel from the Gulf,” before the move faded as “Washington clarified that the order was limited to Saudi Arabia,” prompting the market to pare earlier gains.
Meanwhile, the recovery move in the US Dollar Index (DXY) has also build pressure on the Aussie pair. In European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, bounces back to near 101.66 after revisiting the three-week low near 101.45.
The next trigger for the Australian Dollar and the US Dollar is expected to be the Australia-United States (US) flash private sector PMI data for October, which is scheduled for Friday.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6996. The pair sits exactly at the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) near 0.6996, turning it into a pivotal level and keeping the short-term bias neutral while price oscillates around this dynamic line.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below the 50 mark at 48, hinting at a lack of clear directional momentum as recent downside pressure has slowed but buyers have yet to regain firm control.
With price pinned to the 20-day EMA and the delivery of a breakout of the Double Bottom formation, a sustained close above this pivot would open the door for the bulls to regain the upper hand and attempt a recovery toward prior highs around 0.7036. On the downside, the Aussie pair could enter a fresh leg of decline if it declines below the October 15 low at 0.6894.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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