Swiss Franc flatlines near multi-week low on Fed hike repricing
- USD/CHF trades flat around 0.7870 in Monday’s early European session.
- Markets now see the next Fed interest rate move.
- Trump threatened Iran to “get moving” or there “won’t be anything left of them.”
The USD/CHF pair holds steady near 0.7870 during the early European session on Monday. The pair currently trades near the highest since April 30, bolstered by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-Iran conflicts.
Hotter-than-expected US inflation reports released last week have led the market to price in potential US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes later this year, supporting the Greenback. According to the CME FedWatch tool, financial markets are now pricing in nearly a 48.4% chance the Fed could hike rates by at least 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, compared with 14.3% a week ago.
US President Donald Trump on Sunday warned Iran that the "clock is ticking" as talks to bring the war to an end have stalled. Meanwhile, Iranian media reported the US had failed to make any concrete concessions in its response to Tehran's latest proposals to end the conflict.
A lack of compromise from Washington and signs of a prolonged conflict could lift the USD against the Swiss Franc (CHF) in the near term. RBC Capital Markets analysts noted that the USD is better shielded from global energy shocks than the CHF because the US operates as a net oil exporter.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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