AUD/USD surges near 0.7197 after RBA hike, weakened US Dollar

• RBA hikes 25 bps to 4.35% with an 8–1 vote but signals a data-dependent approach.
• US JOLTS Job Openings dip to 6.866M from 6.922M, pointing to a gradual labor market cooling.
• ISM Services PMI eases to 53.6 from 54.0, remaining in expansion but cooling from prior readings.

The AUD/USD pair is surging near the 0.7190 price zone, building upside momentum after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered a fresh rate hike. Markets now shift their focus toward what comes next in the policy path.

The RBA raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%, marking its third consecutive increase this year and reinforcing its commitment to bringing inflation under control. The decision was backed by a strong 8–1 vote, highlighting a clear consensus among policymakers compared to previous tighter splits.

However, the RBA's communication was more balanced, limiting a strong reaction in the Australian Dollar. Officials acknowledged that inflation will likely remain above target due to high energy prices and geopolitical tensions. They signaled a more data-dependent approach moving forward, allowing for a potential pause in rate hikes to assess incoming information.

On the United States (US) side, the latest data delivered a mixed but still supportive signal for the US Dollar (USD). The JOLTS Job Openings edged down to 6.866 million from 6.922 million, pointing to a gradual cooling in labor demand while remaining consistent with a tight labor market.

Meanwhile, the ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 53.6, easing slightly from the previous 54.0 but still firmly in expansionary territory, with underlying components like Business Activity and New Orders continuing to show resilience. Altogether, the data highlights a controlled slowdown in the labor market alongside solid services activity, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) can maintain a restrictive stance, even after the upbeat US data. The USD seems to be falling amid risk improvement.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the four-hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7194 with a constructive short-term bias as it holds above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7185 and the 100-period SMA at 0.7157. The cluster of underlying averages suggests a supportive backdrop, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 56 points to steady, but not overstretched, bullish momentum as price presses just under the nearby ceiling.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at 0.7195, where a horizontal barrier caps further gains for now. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-period SMA near 0.7185, followed by stepped horizontal floors at 0.7174 and 0.7167, with deeper demand emerging at the 100-period SMA around 0.7157 and the prior horizontal level at 0.7152.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)