SpaceX Trades at 98 Times Sales. Here's What Amazon's Multiple Looked Like at the Same Stage.

Many investors are ignoring a flashing warning sign when analyzing Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX). The rocket flight and artificial intelligence (AI) company helmed by Elon Musk now trades at a market cap of $2.1 trillion and a price-to-sales ratio (P/S) of 98.

Some growth investors are making comparisons to Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) during the dot-com bubble. Shares of Amazon looked expensive at the peak, but if you held through the decades, they eventually delivered great performance for investors who bought in at those levels.

This is not an apples-to-apples comparison. Today, SpaceX generates $23 billion in trailing revenue. What did Amazon trade at with a similar revenue size? When you learn the answer, it will make you think twice about buying SpaceX stock today.

Revenue and margin comparisons

SpaceX generated $23 billion in revenue over the last 12 months and had a gross profit margin of 52% (net profitability was negative). Revenue grew 92% last quarter to $7.8 billion.

Amazon generated close to $23 billion in revenue back in 2009, when it posted annual sales of $24.5 billion. At the time, Amazon was primarily an e-commerce platform and had a lower gross margin than SpaceX does today, with a consolidated margin of 22.6% in the year. However, it was more profitable than SpaceX, generating $1.1 billion in operating earnings back in 2009.

Image source: Getty Images.

Valuations are incomparable

Given the immense growth ahead for Amazon, you might think that investors would have given it an ultra-premium multiple to its sales. This is certainly what would have happened in 2026. However, that is not the case, especially as the world was nervous coming out of the financial crisis and stock market crash in 2008 and early 2009.

In 2009, Amazon had a P/S ratio between 1.5 and 2.5, compared to 98 for SpaceX today. If it were valued at close to SpaceX's current valuation, it would have a market cap of close to $2.4 trillion (98 times its trailing revenue of $24.5 billion). Today, Amazon has a market cap of $2.77 trillion. When you factor in close to two decades of shareholder dilution, the stock price would likely be lower in 2026 compared to 2009, in a hypothetical scenario where an investor bought in 2009 at a P/S ratio of 98.

That is even including two decades of growth at Amazon Web Services (AWS), and Amazon coming to dominate retail spending in North America. Price matters in investing.

AMZN PS Ratio data by YCharts

Does this mean you should sell SpaceX stock?

Elon Musk is ultra-bullish about SpaceX's growth prospects. He thinks revenue can explode higher to $1 trillion by 2030 due to its heavy investments in AI data centers. Revenue is already growing quickly, and the company is planning to spend tens of billions, if not hundreds of billions, on AI capital expenditures.

To be fair to SpaceX, it is growing faster today and has a better gross margin than Amazon did in 2009. However, I would expect reselling AI data center compute to come with lower margins than its highly profitable Starlink satellite internet service, which dominates the income statement today.

Investors should be concerned that even if Musk is right about reaching $1 trillion in revenue by 2030 (which is highly unlikely; no company in history has ever generated $1 trillion in sales), the stock might not be worth much more than it is today. Amazon generates nearly $1 trillion in revenue and is valued at just above SpaceX's current market cap.

And if SpaceX's P/S ratio compresses down to Amazon's level in 2009? Watch out below.

Brett Schafer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.