Bull vs. Bear: Here's My Take on Tesla's Robotaxi Rollout

While Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is best known for its electric vehicles (EVs) and, to a lesser extent, energy solutions, the real value the market is pricing into its stock lies in the near term from its nascent robotaxi business and, later, in its Optimus robot. With a valuation far in excess of rival automakers, Tesla stock clearly has a lot riding on its robotaxi rollout, so here's what you need to know before investing in the stock.

The bears' case over the robotaxi rollout

The naysayers' argument is based on the rollout's failure to deliver anything close to CEO Elon Musk's previous estimates (which included covering half the U.S. population by the end of 2025) for fleet and city expansion.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

In addition, the bears point out that Tesla's camera-only approach faces significant technological hurdles compared with Waymo and others that use light detection and ranging (lidar) technology. Tesla's camera-only solution, and the fact that it makes its own robotaxis, notably the Cybercab, give it an apparent upfront cost and cost-per-mile advantage over lidar-based rivals. However, bears argue that lidar and EV costs will drop over time, ultimately eroding Tesla's competitive edge.

Finally, bears argue that the fragmented regulatory pathway for steering-wheel-less vehicles (like Cybercab) is likely to lead to a lengthy state-by-state approval process. In short, bears not only doubt that Tesla will get widespread approvals, but also see a lengthy, time-consuming, and costly process, while its lidar-focused rivals continue to build scale and reduce their costs.

The robotaxi bulls' case

The bulls' case rests on recognizing that the robotaxi rollout hasn't met the expectations previously laid out by Musk, while also noting that management has spent the last two earnings calls communicating to investors the reality of the rollout. Instead of focusing on fleet size and city expansion, management is now emphasizing the need to perfect the full self-driving (FSD) software, namely v15, to enable a large-scale rollout.

In addition, on the July earnings call, Tesla's head of AI, Ashok Elluswamy, said it had logged 380,000 miles with unsupervised robotaxis. He added that since the start of 2026, "We have grown at double-digit growth rates to the number of unsupervised miles that the fleet drives every week," with expectations for that to continue through the year.

Moreover, he confirmed robotaxis were already running early versions of v15, and said: "We had planned roughly ... seven major improvement tracks, and they're all happening in parallel." He said about 40% of the tracks in the early v15 builds running on robotaxi have merged.

The strategy of focusing on validating and releasing the final version of v15 makes perfect sense, given the kinds of difficulties that could arise if Tesla scales up a robotaxi service using FSD software that isn't yet the finished product.

Image source: Tesla.

All of which should not lead readers to conclude that Tesla's unsupervised robotaxis have a dubious safety record. Tesla reports incident data from its robotaxis to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), and an analysis of the NHTSA data shows that Tesla only had four incidents in 2026 to mid-July that were directly the fault of unsupervised robotaxis under FSD. They are all very low-speed impacts (below 5 mph), with the only incident since January being contact with a thin metal chain blocking a parking lot.

All told, the bulls see Tesla's robotaxi safety record as exemplary and are looking forward to a wide-scale ramp-up, including Cybercab, if and when v15 is fully ready at the end of 2026 or early 2027, according to Musk.

The bottom line on Tesla

Robotaxi is hard. There are no guarantees that Tesla will receive regulatory approvals in line with bulls' expectations, and it's important to note that the NHTSA data doesn't indicate when remote intervention occurred or include any assessment of operational matters (such as robotaxis driving in loops or missing pickup or drop-off points).

That said, Tesla's underlying robotaxi progress is real, and while the shift in emphasis from fleet size and cities to v15 and miles driven will frustrate many investors hoping for a more aggressive rollout, it is what will ultimately release value for shareholders. Meanwhile, analysts at Ark Invest continue to expect Tesla's robotaxi to have a cost per mile that is some 30% to 50% lower than Waymo's.

Consequently, I think the best approach is to take a bullish stance, but be aware that there's a significant risk that the timeline for the large-scale expansion could slip into 2027 and be staggered from a regulatory approval perspective.

Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.