ASML Stock Split Coming? What AI Investors Should Know Before 2026

TradingKey - ASML's (ASML) share price has soared above $1300 per share, which often causes investors to ask the question about a stock split when such a high stock price is reached. 

The Netherlands-based lithography leader manufactures extreme ultra-violet machines, the only manufacturer of this equipment that produces the most advanced wafers; i.e., to create a world-class product for companies such as Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). 

The combination of being the sole source of supply of EUV machines along with its growing position as a supplier of Deep Ultra-Violet (DUV) equipment and services has ASML listed in the middle of two discussions: 1) If a stock split will occur soon, and 2) Which AI hardware supplier is the best long-term investment, ASML or TSMC.

ASML Stock Price and the Logic Behind Stock Splits

The idea of a split reflects speculation surrounding the current share price of ASML and not the company's business model. 

Only 17 companies have traded above $1,000 per share out of over 10,000 publicly traded securities, historically it is normal for companies with high share prices to execute stock splits. 

While splitting a company's shares in response to higher trading values will not impact its underlying fundamentals, it does increase the number of total shares outstanding relative to the current price to the same extent as cutting up a given pie into smaller pieces.

In fact, the occurrence of stock splits can have a noticeable impact on how that stock performs on a day-to-day basis. For example, stock splits capture attention in the marketplace. Upon the split announcement, there is also an increase in trade volume. 

Additionally, this lower price per share allows retail investors, as well as some employees, an opportunity to purchase the stock. 

Furthermore, the fact that a substantial amount of money can be made with stocks after they split helps to add to the continued hype surrounding stock splits.

Based on Bank of America's research, stocks that experience a stock split, on average, have appreciated in value by approximately 25% within 12 months after the split. Although the reason for this may not be fully demonstrated by research, it has been shown to be a very powerful pattern to go against.

In general, companies will choose to conduct a stock split when they expect their stock price will continue to increase, therefore conducting a stock split is perceived to be an event that resets the price of the stock, and can also result in investors anticipating that the stock will continue to appreciate after the split has occurred and, as such will begin purchasing stock before the split has occurred.

Will ASML Split Its Stock in the Near Future?

There has been no official announcement regarding a potential stock split for ASML, which may not be surprising given that companies rarely let us know when they are considering such an announcement prior to it officially occurring. 

The last time they conducted stock splits was in 1997 (2-for-1 split), 1998 (2-for-1 split), and 2000 (3-for-1). Following those stock splits, ASML executed reverse splits in 2007 (8-for-9) and 2012 (77-for-100). 

Historically, reverse splits are usually associated with struggling companies, but ASML's reverse splits were completed as part of an overall strategy to repurchase shares and as part of Intel/TSMC/Samsung investments made in 2012.

At today's ASML stock price, it appears that the question is not if a stock split occurs; rather, it is when a split occurs. 

The company leadership may be hesitant to make this type of decision until they see some level of stability in the marketplace; however, the number of shares and the share price mechanics are less important than the actual investment case. 

Long-term shareholders will ultimately invest in the leadership position of EUV technology and the overall dominance of lithography, not whether or not their stock is split into smaller numbers of shares.

Why ASML Sits at the Center of the AI Buildout

ASML is characterized by a combination of limited supply and strong pricing power. 

The company's EUV systems have a price tag of around $400 million each, and only a small number of companies considered as part of ASML's customer base can justify the investment. 

Many of the customers in this concentrated base include Samsung and Intel, but there are also regulatory restrictions in place that limit ASML from delivering products to China that further limits the customer base. 

Limited customer base aside, the demand from AI is transforming ASML's order book. EUV lithography systems are critical for ASML customers to manufacture the next generation of advanced chips that are used for AI training and inference, while deep UV lithography systems are being used for other high-volume fabrication nodes. 

The breadth of ASML's lithography systems allows ASML to serve a much wider portion of the overall semiconductor production market beyond just cutting-edge production.

Investing in high-priced tools requires maintenance and servicing, which has created a substantial revenue stream. ASML is realizing over one-third of its total revenue from maintenance throughout its products; this revenue continues to increase with each unit installed in operation. 

The strong mix of maintenance services, combined with demand from AI solutions, has had a significant impact on ASML's ability to achieve record-breaking results. 

In 2025, ASML's revenues were €32.7 billion (or up 16% year-over-year) and net income was €9.6 billion with a gross margin of 52.8%.

The positive momentum for ASML continued during Q4 with an additional €13.2 billion in new orders received, which exceeds expectations, and suggests continued strong forward demand attributed to uses in connection with artificial intelligence solutions.

ASML's investors have recognized these factors; ASML's share prices have increased nearly 80% over the past year. 

The current multiple is approximately 40 times earnings, which is higher than the average multiple of S&P 500 companies at approximately 31 times, but is consistent with ASML's five-year historical average multiple. 

With ASML's current share price being well over $1,300, valuation has not deterred buyers due to the visibility associated with the next cycle of AI-related equipment sales.

TSMC Stock: Riding the Wave of AI Chip Demand

If ASML provides the picks and shovels, TSMC runs the mine. Currently, TSMC provides foundry services to the biggest chip designers in the world, including Nvidia and Apple, and continues to dominate the foundry market. 

By the second quarter of 2025, TSMC had approximately 70% of the global foundry market share; Samsung and Intel are continuing to make attempts to close the market gap, but will find it extremely challenging due to TSMC’s scale advantage.

During the past year, the statistics have continued to support TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company). 

TSMC reported revenue of $33.7 billion in Q4 of 2025 and was above analysts’ forecasts. It has shown strong annual growth driven by the high demand for AI (Artificial Intelligence) systems.

TSMC's management has guided that Q1 of 2026 revenue will be between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion and has increased its capex for 2026 from $52 billion to $56 billion in order to meet customers' roadmaps. 

Moreover, TSMC's stock has risen almost 58 percent over the last year. In terms of valuation, TSMC trades at approximately 28 times earnings, which is less than ASML and close to the S&P 500 average.

ASML vs. TSMC: Which AI Stock Is Better for 2026?

The decision of whether to choose ASML or TSMC is more about what kind of risk you are willing to bear. 

TSMC has similar revenue growth and stock price growth to ASML at a lower price-to-earnings multiple. If you are comfortable with the geopolitical risk related to owning TSMC in Taiwan, TSMC is a valid choice. 

Conversely, if you are more risk-averse in terms of how to coordinate your risk, ASML would be a more reliable option. ASML has manufacturing facilities or operations that are not located in high-risk geopolitical areas and has a monopoly in EUV, a large footprint in DUV, and an expanding services function, giving the company flexibility and leverage in multiple stages of the semiconductor cycle.

Also, the stock split is an important consideration as you make this decision. 

A stock split does not affect ASML’s earnings power or competitive position; however, a stock split can create additional short-term interest as companies typically announce stock splits after they feel good about their anticipated insider returns. 

Companies typically will attract more retail investors after an insider return if they announce a stock split before they establish the momentum of the stock split. 

Therefore, while no stock split is guaranteed to create positive results for ASML, it demonstrates why speculation regarding stock splits continues whenever ASML continues at its current high price.

What Should AI Investors Focus on Most?

Both ASML and TSMC play a crucial role in the AI hardware supply chain, and they continue to exceed market performance. 

ASML provides investors with a way to participate in the bottleneck technology necessary for leading-edge production. ASML also has a growing, high-margin service business. 

TSMC has unmatched foundry scale as well as an extensive customer list that includes all the key players in AI. 

Your choice between ASML with regard to its positioning and insulation from Taiwan risk or TSMC relative to its valuation and dominant position in the market will ultimately be determined by your risk tolerance, not on the possible mechanics of a stock split. 

Regardless, both ASML and TSMC will benefit from the underlying growth in AI manufacturing, and that is the primary reason investors are investing in AI.