Hurray! It's Another New Space IPO! (But Should You Buy It?)

York Space Systems (NYSE: YSS) had its initial public offering (IPO) on the NYSE last week.

Pre-IPO, York planned to offer 16 million shares at a price ranging from $30 to $34 per share. Strong demand resulted in 18.5 million shares actually being sold, and the stock ultimately priced at the top of this range -- $34. When trading began on Thursday, York stock opened even higher, trading first at $38.10 and rising to $38.47 intraday.

By the time markets closed for the day, however, York stock ended below its offering price. At week-end, it remained there: $33.95 per share but started the new week by falling still more. So, it's official: York is a broken IPO.

Can it be fixed?

Image source: Getty Images.

What is York Space Systems?

York Space Systems isn't exactly a household name, so a few words of introduction may be in order for those who don't yet know this satellite stock.

Established in 2012, York Space builds satellites, focusing on military satellites. The company offers three main satellite families of increasing size, from the 85-kilogram (kg) S-CLASS to the 500 kg LX-CLASS to the M-CLASS spacecraft, which weighs as much as two metric tons. Out of a total of 136 satellites that the company has on order from the U.S. Space Force, 33 York-built satellites are currently in orbit. York claims an ability "to manufacture and test over 1,000 satellites annually."

The company is a key supplier to the U.S. Space Force's Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA) missile defense program. Indeed, York notes that Space Force's Space Development Agency "accounted for substantially all of our revenue and backlog" in the first nine months of 2025.

This may be both good and bad news.

York boasts an "83% win rate on contracts bid" under PWSA and has contracts to build about 14% of all satellites ordered under PWSA to date. It's also participating in President Donald Trump's related Golden Dome missile defense program and is one of the several hundred companies chosen to compete under the $151 billion Missile Defense Agency SHIELD for Golden Dome awards.

On the other hand, York would suffer significantly if the Golden Dome project were ever canceled or if PWSA and similar funding were cut. As the company warns in the risk disclosures section of its IPO prospectus, "a material change in the SDA's mandate or spending could reduce future revenues we receive from the SDA, and could materially reduce our revenues and backlog."

How much money does York Space Systems make?

This risk lies in the future, however. How is York doing today?

According to the company's IPO prospectus, York is targeting a total addressable market for space satellites and services worth "approximately $140 billion by 2028" -- but it's starting off small. Estimated sales for 2025 were no more than $387.8 million, and losses for the year could exceed $90 million.

Total debt stands at $415.5 million (as of the end of third-quarter 2025), and the company is burning cash. Operating cash flow ran negative by $88.2 million through the first three quarters of the year, and investing activities consumed a further $15.4 million. Depending on how much of that is capital expenditure (the prospectus isn't clear on that point), negative free cash flow could surpass $100 million annually.

These are not encouraging numbers, but what York lacks in sales, profits, and free cash flow, it makes up for in stellar growth rates. Sales climbed more than 50% between 2024 and 2025. As the company gained economies of scale, losses began to shrink in 2025.

Should you buy York Space Systems stock?

And so, we come to the crux of the issue for investors: York today already costs less than it did at the time of its IPO. Perversely, investors who missed out on the IPO price now have an opportunity to buy York Space stock even cheaper than the IPO crowd did.

Should you take this opportunity?

Personally, I would not -- and will not, or at least not yet. York Space stock currently sports a $4.2 billion valuation. On $388 million in (estimated) trailing revenue, that works out to an 11.6 times price-to-sales ratio, nearly triple my fair value estimate for unprofitable space stocks.

Long story short, I think York stock has further to fall. If you really want to own it, I think you will eventually get a chance to buy it even cheaper than it is today.

Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.