This Stock Is Testing Investor Patience, but the Long-Term Case Is Compelling

One of Warren Buffett's most famous quotes about investing is about the virtues of patience.

"The stock market is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient," Buffett once said.

He's basically saying that it's generally not a good idea to try to time the market or react to short-term volatility. It's generally more fruitful to take the long view and watch gains compound over time.

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That's great in theory, but it can be hard to watch a stock sputter for years, waiting for something to happen. One in particular that stands out is Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR), a company that makes electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, also called air taxis.

I know firsthand, as it's a stock I invest in, and have been waiting, mostly patiently, for it to, well, take off.

Waiting for Archer to take off

Since the company went public in 2021 and started trading at around $10 per share, Archer stock has lost value, currently trading at around $8.20 per share.

But it should be known that these types of air taxis aren't even in commercial operation yet. And Archer is not generating any revenue, operating at a net loss as it invests in its fleet and operations. But it has about $2 billion in cash and liquidity after it just raised another $650 million in the latest quarter.

But Archer Aviation is one of the first movers here, as it moves toward commercial operations, which gives it an advantage over much of the competition. Further, the company is expected to start generating revenue, potentially in the first quarter of 2026. Analysts project about $32 million in revenue for the full year 2026, which is something, but not a lot.

Some tailwinds for Archer

There are several reasons why Archer stock should start to move higher. In the fall, its Midnight aircraft passed flight tests in Abu Dhabi, and according to reports, the UAE expects to approve air taxis for commercial operations in the third quarter of 2026. That bodes well for Archer as it has an agreement to provide commercial operations for the UAE.

It also recently signed a preferred partner deal with Serbia, which means Serbia can purchase a fleet of up to 25 Midnight air taxis.

In the U.S., the Trump Administration launched a pilot program to fast-track the deployment of advanced air mobility vehicles, including eVTOLs.

Archer has conducted test flights and gained key Federal Aviation Administration approvals, but analysts say it probably won't be until 2028 that Archer gets approved for commercial operations in the U.S.

But it is gearing up for that, recently acquiring the Hawthorne Airport in Los Angeles for $126 million. It will serve as its operational hub for its air taxi operations and play "a key role" in the 2028 LA Olympics.

Analysts are generally bullish on Archer with a median price target of $13 per share, which would suggest a 56% return over the next 12 months.

Investors should acknowledge that it's still a speculative play, and they should keep positions relatively small and entrenched within a diversified portfolio. But I think that over time, even if it doesn't pop this year, patience will pay off.

Dave Kovaleski has a position in Archer Aviation. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.