What Wall Street Thinks Nvidia Will Be Worth 1 Year From Now. 1 Reason They Might Be Wrong.

Analyst opinions on Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) are like noses, and not just because everybody has one. Sometimes they run. Sometimes they're stuffy. Sometimes they just need to breathe.

There are dozens of Wall Street pros following the country's most valuable company by market cap. Their near-term price targets are everywhere, like noses, I guess. Let's see what these analysts are banking on in terms of price targets. Then, let's pivot to why these near-term opinions might not matter.

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The price is right

How high or low do analysts think Nvidia could go in the next 12 months? Equity research firm Evercore ISI has a Street-high target of $352, bumping it up from $261 back in November. At the bearish end of the spectrum, Seaport Global Securities is perched at $140. The goal was actually boosted from $100 two months ago.

It's a world of extreme outcomes. If Evercore is right, there's 84% upside for Nvidia shareholders from its Monday close of $191.52. If Seaport scores, Nvidia stock would take a 27% hit. The median of all the analyst profit targets is $250, a reasonable 31% higher than where the undeniable leader of the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution stands today.

These estimates are all over the map, and that's a good thing. Whether you're long or short Nvidia, you don't want the complacency of every Wall Street pro hovering around the same projections. Thankfully for those who own Nvidia, there's a good reason to believe that Nvidia could exceed even the rosiest of expectations.

Beauty and the beat

You know Nvidia is respected when even the most bearish of analysts jacks up his price target by 40% to keep up with the improving fundamentals for the world's most valuable exchange-listed stock. Even the smart ones could be trying catch up.

Nvidia has perfected the art of the "beat and raise" these past couple of years, even in a world where tariffs and trade restrictions often find Nvidia playing with one hand tied behind its back. The beats over the past year have been modest. The last four quarters have been single-digit-percentage positive surprises. This might suggest that analysts are getting better at modeling Nvidia's performance, but let's talk about the raise component.

Nvidia's fiscal year ended over the weekend. Expectations in just the past three months for the fourth-quarter financials it will report in four weeks are shooting higher. Analysts see revenue and adjusted earnings per share now rising 67% and 71%, respectively, for the quarter that just ended. They have also been juicing up the new year's profit goals. Wall Street pros have gone from modeling a profit per share of $6.55 for this new fiscal year to $7.66 in just the past three months. Can you imagine how high Nvidia's results could go if momentum keeps building?

The stock is now trading for just 25 times forward earnings. Nvidia is growing its business much faster, making this valuation surprisingly compelling. Even the highest price target of $352 would find Nvidia trading at a trailing earnings multiple of 46 a year from now (and a forward multiple of 36). This isn't a bargain today, but if estimates keep rising as 2026 plays out, even the Street-high price target could prove to be a great deal on an elite stock.

Rick Munarriz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.