Tesla's Optimus vs NEO – The Battle for the Future of Robots

TradingKey - As Tesla (TSLA) one of its most strategically ambitious projects, the humanoid robot Optimus has yet to contribute actual revenue, but its long-term potential has already been extensively priced in by the market.

We believe that if Optimus can achieve large-scale deployment as planned, its application scenarios will far exceed those of the automotive business, potentially becoming Tesla's true second growth curve. However, the realization of this vision is highly dependent on technological maturity, cost control, and the pace of commercialization—factors that are currently the most critical risk points for investors.

What is the Optimus humanoid robot?

The Optimus humanoid robot (also known as Tesla Bot) is a bipedal, human-shaped AI-driven robot developed by Tesla, Inc., designed to perform repetitive, dangerous, or labor-intensive basic tasks. Standing approximately 1.72 meters tall and weighing between 50 and 70 kilograms, it is equipped with cameras, sensors, and Tesla's proprietary AI chips. It can recognize environments through vision and uses the same technology as the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system for navigation and decision-making.

Optimus's targeted applications include both domestic and commercial scenarios. It is currently in the prototype testing phase and has not yet reached mass production, but Tesla CEO Elon Musk has stated that its long-term potential could surpass that of Tesla's automotive business, becoming a 'universal labor force that everyone can own.'

Who are the competitors to the Optimus humanoid robot?

While Tesla's Optimus has garnered significant attention due to Musk's high-profile promotion, it is not the only product competing in the humanoid robot space. Currently, several companies globally have introduced competitors with practical potential, the most representative being the NEO Beta domestic humanoid robot launched by 1X Technologies.

Standing about 1.6 meters tall, it is accepted by many households due to its simple and friendly appearance. It possesses capabilities such as walking, grabbing objects, voice interaction, and remote video calls, with primary applications in lightweight household scenarios like elder companionship, pet care, item delivery, and home security monitoring.

Unlike Tesla's Optimus, which emphasizes a 'universal labor force,' the NEO Beta focuses more on safety, emotional interaction, and practical usability, employing low-power motors and soft materials to ensure safety when coexisting in close proximity with people at home.

What are the differences between the Optimus and NEO humanoid robots?

The positioning of NEO Beta differs from that of Optimus; NEO utilizes low-power motors, a soft shell, and passive safety structures, ensuring no injury even during close interaction with children or the elderly at home. This extreme emphasis on physical and psychological safety is a prerequisite for the acceptance of domestic robots.

In contrast, Tesla's Optimus has been aimed at a broader range of industrial and domestic scenarios since its design inception, emphasizing high load capacity, complex task execution, and potential for large-scale deployment. Optimus employs a more powerful drive system and a more compact structure, with the goal of eventually handling heavy loads, working on factory assembly lines, and even participating in high-intensity work such as construction or logistics.

Since 2024, NEO Beta has conducted paid trials in select households in the United States and Europe, with a price tag of approximately $15,000, making it one of the closest bipedal domestic humanoid robots to commercialization globally.

Meanwhile, Optimus has not yet officially launched large-scale paid usage for general consumers or enterprises; it is primarily in the research, development, testing, and internal production line application phases. In his latest speech, Musk stated that humanoid robots will become a household standard and that Optimus will officially go on sale in 2027.

According to reports, 1X Technologies has raised over $125 million in venture capital, including a $100 million Series B round and an earlier $23.5 million Series A2 round, which is widely considered the primary external funding supporting NEO's development. Meanwhile, according to a 2023 research report from the NYU Stern School of Business, cumulative investment in Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot has already exceeded $23 billion.

In terms of magnitude, we can see that the investment in Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot holds a staggering, dominant lead.

What impact will the development of Optimus have on Tesla's stock price?

As it stands, the current valuation already incorporates optimistic assumptions from investors regarding Optimus becoming a 'second growth curve.' If actual mass production progress, unit economics, or initial order volumes fall short of expectations, the market will re-evaluate the viability of the business, thereby triggering a valuation correction.

Particularly against the backdrop of slowing EV growth for Tesla, if the Optimus narrative fails to materialize, it could weaken the premium logic for Tesla as a 'high-growth tech company,' leading to a capital flight toward more certain assets.