Better Potential IPO in 2026: SpaceX vs. OpenAI (ChatGPT)

After a better year for initial public offerings in 2025, investors are abuzz with excitement for IPOs in 2026.

Part of the reason for this excitement can be attributed to some extremely hyped potential candidates in new sectors, such as artificial intelligence (AI), that are reportedly considering going public this year. Two candidates, in particular, are Elon Musk's SpaceX and Sam Altman's OpenAI, the parent company of ChatGPT.

These two could become the largest IPOs ever. If both were to go public, which would be the better IPO? Let's take a look.

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SpaceX

Launched in 2002 by serial entrepreneur and billionaire Elon Musk, SpaceX is a company that builds rockets from reusable materials, making the launch process less expensive and potentially quicker. The ultimate goal is to conduct trips to the Moon and other planets.

SpaceX has also built low-Earth-orbit satellites to help bring high-speed internet to all parts of the planet, especially rural areas not served by traditional fiber cables. As of mid-December, Starlink had 9,357 satellites in orbit and hopes to one day have as many as 42,000.

Musk has called previous reports about a SpaceX IPO in 2026 "accurate." Other media outlets have indicated that the company could look to raise over $30 billion in a potential IPO at a valuation that could be as high as $1.5 trillion. The company recently conducted a secondary share sale at an $800 billion valuation.

In June, Musk said revenue for the company was projected to hit about $15.5 billion in 2025. Musk has also recently said that Starlink has 9 million active users across 155 countries, implying that the company was adding 20,000 users per day.

OpenAI (ChatGPT)

OpenAI's ChatGPT software leverages large language models (LLMs) that enable it to engage in human-like conversations with people, quickly and accurately answering search queries at an advanced level. ChatGPT can also create content and projects, ranging from visual content, such as images, to piecing together code and various other forms of programming.

ChatGPT has been dubbed the fastest-growing consumer application of all time, having hit 800 million active weekly users last October. It is less certain that OpenAI will go public this year, although many believe there is a strong possibility.

Last month, The Wall Street Journal reported that the company could look to raise as much as $100 billion, which could value the company as high as $830 billion. However, other reports have indicated the company could get valued as high as $1 trillion.

It is clear that OpenAI will need substantial capital to make its investment plans a reality. AI is so data-intensive that it requires significant new infrastructure, such as data centers, and substantial resources, including power, which could pose another potential roadblock to the AI revolution. The company has reportedly already inked contracts for data center capacity worth a collective $1.4 trillion. Altman has also previously said that the company would achieve a $20 billion annualized revenue run rate sometime in 2025.

Better IPO to invest in

Regardless of whether an investor chooses to buy OpenAI or SpaceX in a potential IPO, they will undoubtedly be paying a massive valuation. However, valuation is likely less important with these two, given that investors are not going to care about valuation when buying game-changing technologies and AI companies they believe could pioneer a whole new economy.

My guess is that by the time retail investors can buy shares, the prices of each company will have been driven up by so much hype that they will trade at astronomical valuations well above what's already being discussed.

Retail investors should monitor lock-up provisions in both IPOs, which require insiders and early investors to hold shares for a specified period after a company goes public before they can sell. I wouldn't recommend buying either IPO on the day they list. Rather, investors should wait until lock-up provisions expire and insiders can sell large amounts of shares to lock in massive gains.

Ultimately, though, if I did have to pick one, I would choose OpenAI right now. The company's growth has been massive, and it's only charging $20 per month for its premium version. Furthermore, SpaceX faces significant execution risk and potential challenges, given that its business operates in space, a frontier with numerous challenges.

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