Is Bitcoin About to Break Out?

For crypto investors, the good news is that Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has managed to scratch out a 5% gain to start off 2026, and is now trading above the $90,000 price level. The bad news is that Bitcoin is still down 27% from its all-time high of $126,000 in October.

Bitcoin might be struggling, but there are plenty of analysts and investors -- myself included -- who think that it could be ready to break out this year.

Bitcoin to $250,000?

According to CNBC's annual roundup of Bitcoin predictions, the world's most popular cryptocurrency could end the year at a price of anywhere from $75,000 to $225,000 in 2026. That's a huge range, and indicative of just how much fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) there is around Bitcoin right now.

Image source: Getty Images.

Digital asset investment firm CoinShares, for example, thinks Bitcoin could hit a price of anywhere from $120,000 to $170,000. Taking a more optimistic note, Nexo, a wealth platform for digital assets, thinks Bitcoin could hit a price of anywhere from $150,000 to $200,000 this year. Even better, Bit Mining thinks Bitcoin might actually top out around $225,000 this year.

And don't forget about Tom Lee of Fundstrat. At the end of 2025, this high-profile Wall Street strategist predicted that Bitcoin would soar to a price of $250,000 this year.

If you believe in the Bitcoin supercycle, then Bitcoin has the potential to soar in price over the next few years. According to this investment thesis, Bitcoin has snapped out of its four-year cycle of boom and bust, and is poised to head ever higher during a Trump presidency as institutional investors relentlessly pour new money into Bitcoin.

Potential catalysts for 2026

Many of these price targets are not grounded in anything particularly fundamental about what's happening with the Bitcoin blockchain ecosystem, and that's what concerns me. In other words, nothing has really changed with Bitcoin.

If that's the case, then the future of Bitcoin depends on the broader macroeconomic environment. This suggests that Bitcoin might be a lot more correlated with equities -- and especially tech equities -- than many people would like to think.

Many optimistic price predictions about Bitcoin are based on hopeful thinking about where the U.S. economy could be headed this year. In addition, these predictions assume that groundbreaking new crypto legislation will once again juice the crypto market in 2026, much as it did last year with the Genius Act.

It's up to you to decide if lower interest rates or new crypto legislation are enough to send Bitcoin skyrocketing in price. From my perspective, it will take an even bigger catalyst.

The one that I'm keeping a close eye on is a potential move by the U.S. Treasury to boost its Bitcoin holdings via the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. According to Cathie Wood of Ark Invest, that's a distinct possibility in 2026, especially if the crypto market (and the price of Bitcoin) is still sagging as we head into the U.S. midterm elections.

The only thing that's certain about Bitcoin in 2026 is plenty of volatility ahead. However, if all goes according to plan, Bitcoin might once again double in value, just as it did in 2023 and 2024, in order to end the year near the $200,000 price level.

Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.