What 2025 Tells Us About MercadoLibre's Long-Term Story

When investors think about MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI), the story has long sounded straightforward: a dominant e-commerce and fintech platform with enormous growth potential in Latin America. The company has often been called the Amazon of the region, and for years, that comparison worked.

But 2025 tells a more nuanced story. Growth remains strong, yet profitability is under pressure, costs are rising, and competition is intensifying. None of this breaks the long-term thesis, but it does make MercadoLibre a more complex stock than it was historically.

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Growth remains exceptional

Let's start with the positives. MercadoLibre continues to expand at a pace most global technology companies would envy. In the third quarter of 2025, net revenue rose 39% year over year to $7.4 billion, driven by nearly 35% growth in gross merchandise value (GMV) on a foreign-exchange-neutral basis. The platform now serves 77 million unique buyers quarterly, roughly a 26% increase from the prior year.

Fintech momentum remains equally strong. Mercado Pago's credit portfolio increased 83% year over year to $11.0 billion, while the 90-day non-performing loan (NPL) rate improved from 7.8% a year ago to 6.8%. Monthly active users reached 72 million, with customers increasingly using Mercado Pago for not just online shopping, but also for everyday payments, savings, and credit.

These figures reinforce a key point: MercadoLibre's ecosystem remains sticky. The integration of marketplace, logistics, and payments keeps users engaged and raises switching costs for both buyers and sellers.

Margins are under pressure

That growth, however, has come with clear trade-offs. MercadoLibre's operating margin peaked in the fourth quarter of 2024 at 13.5% and has since declined precipitously over the subsequent quarters, reaching just 9.8% in the third quarter of 2025.

The main driver was shipping. Facing intensifying competition in Brazil -- particularly from Shopee and Temu -- MercadoLibre cut its free-shipping threshold from 79 reais to just 19 reais. The strategy succeeded in boosting volumes and engagement, but it also increased logistics costs.

More importantly, those costs may not return to normal quickly. As competitors continue to compete aggressively on price and delivery speed, MercadoLibre will likely need to sustain elevated shipping subsidies to defend its market position.

In regions where consumer purchasing power is limited and price sensitivity is high, this dynamic creates a structural risk. If MercadoLibre must rely on subsidies to maintain growth, margins could remain compressed -- or even decline further -- in the coming quarters.

Reinvestment is accelerating

At the same time, MercadoLibre is doubling down on reinvestment. The company estimates that it will invest approximately $13.2 billion in 2025, with a focus on Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina. That spending targets logistics hubs, technology upgrades, and infrastructure.

Over the long term, these investments strengthen the moat. Faster deliveries improve customer satisfaction, deeper fintech integration increases engagement, and better technology supports scale.

In the short term, however, they raise the bar for execution. Higher fixed costs and capital intensity make MercadoLibre more vulnerable to macroeconomic volatility, particularly in markets where inflation, currency fluctuations, and regulatory changes are prevalent.

Competition and macro risks are rising

The operating environment in Latin America adds another layer of complexity. Currency weakness, particularly in Argentina, continues to impact reported results. Brazil and Mexico offer scale, but both are increasingly competitive.

For instance, Shopee has overtaken MercadoLibre in Brazil by order volume, leveraging aggressive promotions and gamified shopping to attract cost-conscious consumers. Temu, which is owned by PDD Holdings, is flooding the region with ultra-cheap goods shipped directly from China. In fintech, Nubank continues to expand rapidly, challenging Mercado Pago for wallet share.

These pressures make execution more critical than ever. MercadoLibre no longer just needs to grow; it needs to grow efficiently and defensively.

What does it mean for investors?

MercadoLibre's long-term opportunity didn't weaken in 2025. However, these recent months did alter how investors viewed the stock. This is no longer a "buy and forget" growth story where margins naturally expand every year. It's becoming an execution story, one where capital allocation, credit discipline, and competitive strategy matter more than ever.

For long-term investors, MercadoLibre still represents one of the most compelling ways to participate in Latin America's digital transformation. The difference is that returns may come with more volatility and fewer upward trends. That's not a reason to avoid the stock. But it is a reason to watch it more closely.

Lawrence Nga has positions in PDD Holdings. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and MercadoLibre. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.