Sirius XM Is Down 9% in 2025. Is This a Once-in-a-Lifetime Buying Opportunity Before the Stock Goes Parabolic?

The U.S. stock market is on track to close out 2025 with another double-digit percentage return. But not every company contributed positively to that result. For example, as of Friday morning, Sirius XM (NASDAQ: SIRI) shares were down by around 9% year to date. This continues a disappointing streak: The stock has tanked by 67% over the past five years.

Yet after this latest decline, is it possible that Sirius XM has become a once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity? The answer rests on the business, its fundamentals, and its valuation.

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The good and the bad with Sirius XM's business

When it comes to the domestic satellite radio market, there is only one contender. Sirius XM is the only operator in the U.S., and regulatory hurdles would make it hard for any would-be rivals to get off the ground. Plus, there would be substantial capital investments required to build out the necessary infrastructure and scale up.

As such, Sirius XM is theoretically a competitively advantaged business. Moreover, the company generates meaningful subscription revenue -- $1.6 billion in Q3 alone. Subscriptions account for 75% of its total sales base, and that recurring revenue stream makes its overall finances more predictable.

Another good sign is that the business is profitable: It reported net income of $297 million last quarter. Management also expects the company to produce just over $1.2 billion in free cash flow (FCF) this year, and is targeting FCF of $1.5 billion in 2027. With the company on track to require lower capital expenditures, FCF is positioned to trend higher, if you believe what its executives are saying.

However, the company is not without some negative qualities that investors would be wise not to overlook. One clear factor working against Sirius XM is technological innovation, namely the ubiquity of smartphones and faster internet connectivity. Advances on those fronts laid the groundwork for streaming services like Spotify and Apple Music to thrive. And these might offer consumers a better value proposition.

Sirius XM might not have any direct competitors in the satellite radio industry. However, it's obviously facing intense competition from these streamers -- particularly those that are operated by tech sector megacaps. They all have the resources to make things difficult for Sirius XM, which registered a shrinking self-pay subscriber base and declining revenue in Q3.

Also, while Sirius XM's FCF is positive, its balance sheet isn't in the best shape. As of Sept. 30, it carried over $10 billion in long-term debt on its books. The entire company's market cap is under $7 billion. It could take a significant amount of time for it to pay that debt down, which does introduce financial risk.

Is Sirius XM cheap for a reason?

Due to the weak market sentiment toward Sirius XM, its shares trade at a bargain forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.8. That's a massive discount compared to the average 21.8 multiple of the S&P 500. Meanwhile, at that low share price, the company's dividend yields a hefty 5.3%, which could appeal to investors interested in steady income.

But the question we're asking here is whether the business could improve, sentiment could shift, and the stock could recover and go parabolic, growing fivefold or more over the next decade. I view this as a highly unlikely outcome.

Yes, its forward P/E multiple is dirt-cheap right now. Any meaningful improvements to its fundamentals could lead the market to re-rate the stock and boost that ratio. However, there's a meaningful possibility that Sirius XM's business will be in a weaker position five or 10 years from now. Because of that risk, in my view, investors should stay away from the stock.

Neil Patel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Apple, and Spotify Technology. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.