Prediction: 2 Stocks That'll Be Worth More Than Palantir 10 Years From Now

Source Motley_fool

Key Points

  • Palantir has been an exceptional stock to own over the past few years, but it's extremely expensive and has a niche market.

  • Amazon has several large and growing businesses and should keep capturing market share.

  • Apple has an unparalleled consumer tech business.

  • 10 stocks we like better than Amazon ›

Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) stock has been absolutely incredible for investors over the past few years. It's up nearly 400% over the past year alone, reaching a market cap of $475 billion at the time of this writing.

If it continues on its streak, it's likely to be a lot bigger in 10 years. However, unless it changes its business model over the next decade, it services a highly niche segment that's more limited than other fields. That's why, despite its stock skyrocketing, its total value is still well behind others in broader industries.

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Consider how much bigger Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) are today in terms of sales:

PLTR Revenue (TTM) Chart

PLTR Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts

So while Palantir might keep gaining and rewarding investors, it's still not likely to jump ahead of larger companies in its current state. It's already trading at an outrageously high valuation of 147 times trailing 12-month sales. Even keeping that steady, it would need to gain another 400% to reach Amazon's market cap today. But the price-to-sales ratio is likely to decline over the next 10 years, making it harder to increase 400%, and Amazon stock has huge opportunities as well.

In 10 years, the stock market is going to look totally different, with different trends driving gains. But I think that Amazon and Apple, which both have a wide consumer reach, will still be larger than Palantir.

Amazon delivery person bringing a package to a house.

Image source: Amazon.

1. Amazon: Varied revenue streams

Amazon is the leader in two completely different segments, both of which are huge and growing. It controls around 40% of U.S. e-commerce, in addition to being a leading global player, and it could still gain market share.

It's taking many actions to make that happen. It expanded the rural communities it serves with same or next-day delivery by 60% over the past four months, and it expanded access to same-day grocery delivery to more than 1,000 cities, with plans to reach 2,300 by the end of the year. It's hard to imagine that this won't result in higher sales even in the short term, and as new customers come to rely on Amazon for a greater number of their essential purchases, and Amazon reaches even more communities with faster delivery, it should enjoy growing e-commerce sales for years.

Its other main segment today is Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud computing, and that's where the exciting artificial intelligence (AI) business is happening. AWS sales growth accelerated to more than 20% in the third quarter, its highest growth in 11 quarters, and the company is increasing capacity to meet growing demand. CEO Andy Jassy said that AWS has a $200 billion backlog, and that doesn't even include deals that haven't been announced yet. That looks good for the next few quarters, and Amazon is planning to increase AI spending in 2026 to meet demand.

Jassy continually talks about the expanding opportunity in the cloud and AI as companies shift their spend over the next decade or two, and it looks like that's starting to happen.

Amazon has several other businesses, like advertising and streaming, and it's well-positioned to become the largest company in the world by sales and for its stock to reflect that over the next decade.

Hand holding an iPhone.

Image source: Getty Images.

2. Apple: The user favorite

Apple has a consumer tech ecosystem unlike any other. Its iPhones are the most popular phones in the U.S., accounting for more than half of all smartphones in the country. And while the iPhone 16 remains the most popular phone, for now, management is seeing tremendous demand for the iPhone 17. New iPhone launches are a huge part of Apple's business, and loyal customers eventually upgrade, keeping them in Apple's ecosystem.

Users also tend to buy Apple's family of products, which they love for their design and quality. Keeping iPhone fans happy leads to Mac, iPad, and AirPods sales, plus more.

Its revenue streams aren't as large and varied as Amazon's, but it has expanded into several device types, plus a high-margin subscription business that covers streaming, fitness, and more.

Apple is taking its time rolling out an AI business that's impressing the market, but customers are signaling their satisfaction with the level of AI that Apple offers today.

Although the retail landscape may change over the next 10 years, and the iPhone might evolve into the next hot device, Apple is likely to be at the forefront of whatever the next consumer tech product is, leading the way.

Apple stock is making a big comeback from earlier lows this year, and I predict Apple will remain one of the largest stocks in the world in 10 years.

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Jennifer Saibil has positions in Apple. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Apple, and Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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