Xiaomi 17 Breaks Sales Records, Yet Ming-Chi Kuo Remains Skeptical with Shipment Target Downgrade

TradingKey - On September 29, TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo released a report downgrading the total shipment forecast for the Xiaomi 17 series by approximately 20% from its original target of 10 million units. Kuo warns that unless Xiaomi enhances its pricing strategy or marketing efforts, total shipments might even fall below the Xiaomi 15 series’ approximately 8 million units.

This cautious outlook starkly contrasts with Xiaomi's confident launch and the optimistic expectations of its leadership. On September 27, Xiaomi announced that the Xiaomi 17 series broke the all-day sales volume and revenue records for a new domestic smartphone series across all price ranges within just five minutes of launch in 2025. Xiaomi's President of Smartphone Division, Lu Weibing, expressed confidence that the 17 series will outperform the 15 series in sales. Moreover, Wang Hua, Xiaomi's General Manager of Public Relations, stated that there are currently no plans to cut orders, with overall orders expected to increase compared to the previous generation.

Kuo explained that the downgrade in the sales forecast for the 17 series is mainly due to Xiaomi's initial projection that standard models would account for approximately 50-55% of total series sales, but they only represent about 15-20%. Although orders for the Pro Max and Pro models have risen, they cannot offset the decline in demand for standard models. Kuo attributes the underwhelming sales performance of the 17 series primarily to stronger-than-expected sales of Apple's iPhone 17 standard model in the Chinese market.

Furthermore, Kuo anticipates that Xiaomi will face challenges from two competitors in China's high-end market in 2026. Apple is set to release a new iPhone SE in the first half of the next year, followed by a new high-end iPhone series in the latter half. Although Huawei's demand for high-end models is currently below expectations due to compatibility issues with HarmonyOS NEXT, these issues are expected to be resolved next year, or Huawei may offer a service to revert to a compatible version of HarmonyOS.

Kuo suggests that if the Xiaomi 17 series sales do not improve during the National Day holiday, Xiaomi may choose to lower the price of a specific model to boost total high-end device shipments. As for whether Xiaomi's high-end model sales will resume growth by 2026, the key lies in the competitive strategy and AI strategy at the device level for the Xiaomi 18 series.

On September 29, Xiaomi's Hong Kong shares closed down 1.92% at HKD 53.6.