Social Security COLA Countdown: Here's How Big of an Increase You Can Expect

Key Points

• The Senior Citizens League recently announced its final 2026 COLA prediction.

• Inflation numbers for September could cause the actual 2026 COLA to differ from TSCL's projection.

• Retirees face one "gotcha" that could reduce how much of the COLA actually hits their bank accounts.

• The $23,760 Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook ›

Seventeen days. That's how much longer Social Security beneficiaries must wait to find out how big their "raise" will be in 2026.

The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) countdown is about to kick into overdrive. But you don't have to sit on pins and needles in anticipation of the official COLA announcement on Oct. 15, 2025, to have a pretty good feel for what the increase will be.

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The best COLA prediction right now

If you want to know how big of a Social Security benefit increase to expect, probably the best place to turn is The Senior Citizens League (TSCL). This nonprofit organization has advocated for seniors since 1992, initially as part of The Retired Enlisted Association and then as an independent entity beginning in 1994.

TSCL developed a sophisticated statistical model that projects the next Social Security COLA. This model is updated monthly. It incorporates inflation and unemployment data, as well as the interest rates set by the Federal Reserve.

Earlier this month, TSCL announced its final prediction for the 2026 Social Security COLA. The organization projects an increase of 2.7%, a little higher than the 2.5% COLA given in 2025. It's also slightly above the average benefit adjustment over the last 20 years of 2.6%.

How much additional money will this COLA give retirees? It depends on your current benefit amount, of course. However, the average increase will be $54 per month if TSCL's model is right.

What could change by Oct. 15?

The Social Security Administration (SSA) already has most of the data it needs to calculate next year's COLA. It will receive the last piece on Oct. 15 when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases its inflation numbers for September.

SSA doesn't use the most widely followed inflation metric in the BLS report, the Consumer Price Index. Instead, the agency bases the annual Social Security COLA on a different statistic -- the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). As its name indicates, this index measures how much prices have increased for blue-collar workers in urban areas.

The COLA is calculated by determining the percentage increase (if any) between the CPI-W for the third quarter of the current year and the CPI-W in the third quarter of the previous year. SSA only needs to plug in the CPI-W for September to crunch the numbers.

Could the actual 2026 COLA that will be announced on Oct. 15 differ from the 2.7% predicted by TSCL? Absolutely. Inflation could be higher in September than anticipated, perhaps due to the impact of tariffs making their way through the U.S. economy. On the other hand, the effects of tariffs could be more muted than TSCL's model projects, resulting in a lower COLA. Either way, TSCL's projected number will probably be close to the actual 2026 COLA.

One "gotcha"

Retirees shouldn't count on having an additional 2.7%, give or take a couple of percentage points, reach their bank accounts, though. There's one "gotcha" that will likely reduce how much extra money you'll receive.

Most retirees ages 65 and older have their Medicare premiums automatically deducted from their monthly Social Security benefit payments. Unfortunately, your Medicare Part B premiums will almost certainly be much higher than the expected 2.7% Social Security increase.

The Medicare Trustees project that Part B premiums will rise by 11.6%. This translates to an extra expense of $21.50, enough to wipe out much of the average retiree COLA of $54. The annual Medicare Part B deductible will also likely jump by $31 to $288 next year.

The countdown is on for finding out the exact amounts for the 2026 Medicare Part B premiums and deductibles, too. While the numbers will probably be announced in October, retirees might not learn how their pocketbooks will be impacted as soon as they learn what their Social Security COLA will be.

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