Could Buying Lucid Stock Today Set You Up for Life?

Key Points

• Lucid could produce up to 20,000 vehicles this year, three years behind its initial goal.

• Despite recent production increases, the company is burning through cash quickly and has $2 billion in debt.

• Lucid stock won't likely set you up for life if the company continues on its current path.

• 10 stocks we like better than Lucid Group ›

Just a few short years ago many investors had high hopes for the electric vehicle startup Lucid (NASDAQ: LCID). In the following 12 months after it went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), Lucid stock skyrocketed, fell, then rose rapidly again -- with 400% returns after its first year of being publicly traded.

Unfortunately, the honeymoon ended. Amid rising inflation, higher vehicle costs, production hiccups, mounting losses, and a challenging electric vehicle market, Lucid stock has lost its luster. Its share price is down 96% from its all-time high.

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So, what happened? And, could Lucid stock return to its glory days and set investors up for life if they buy shares now? Here's why I'm doubtful that will happen.

Image source: Lucid.

The road to "production hell" is paved with good intentions

Just before Lucid went public, co-founder and then-CEO Peter Rawlinson took a swipe at Tesla, saying that no other automaker endured the kind of "production hell" that Elon Musk's company faced. Rawlinson said:

"It's only one car company I know of that experiences production hell. Toyota puts a new car into production many times every year, so does BMW, Mercedes, Audi, GM ... you never hear of production hell. It's part of the job. I've not experienced production hell."

That statement turned out to be woefully premature. Lucid originally targeted production of 20,000 vehicles in 2022 but managed only about 7,200. Three years later, management has set 2025 production guidance at 18,000 to 20,000 -- essentially the same figure it promised for 2022.

In other words, Lucid is only now approaching its original goal set three years ago, and even its low end (18,000) would fall short of that target. Production hell indeed.

To be fair, production output has grown from about 9,000 vehicles in 2024, and doubling production in a year would be progress. But the pace is slow compared to peers. Rivian, another EV startup, expects to deliver 40,000 to 46,000 vehicles this year -- more than double Lucid's guidance. And Rivian is still a small player compared to Tesla's hundreds of thousands of vehicles produced.

In short, Lucid's recent gains aren't as impressive as they first appear. The company may be building more cars, but it's still crawling compared to competitors.

Losses are significant as the EV industry faces roadblocks

Lucid's financials are even more troubling. The company reported a non-GAAP net loss of $0.24 per share in Q2 2025, following a $1.04 per-share loss in 2024. Losses are nothing new for young EV makers, but even with some leeway, Lucid's financial health doesn't look great.

The company is burning cash, carries about $2 billion in debt, and has relied heavily on its majority investor -- Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund -- to stay afloat. The PIF injected another $1.5 billion last year, and further investments may be necessary as Lucid attempts to fund new projects, including a lower-priced $50,000 model. Developing and scaling that vehicle will require substantial additional capital.

These losses come at a difficult time for the EV industry as a whole. New tariffs could increase Lucid's costs by 8% to 15%, while the expiration of tax credits that previously boosted Lucid's leasing program will make its cars even less competitive on price.

Consumer sentiment is also shifting in the wrong direction. A recent AAA survey found just 16% of Americans are "very likely" to buy an EV for their next car, down from 25% in 2022. Concerns about high purchase prices, costly battery repairs, and charging infrastructure are weighing on demand.

For Lucid, that combination is particularly dangerous. Weak consumer appetite doesn't doom the company on its own, but when layered onto heavy losses, rising costs, and reliance on outside funding, it makes an already uphill battle even steeper.

Lucid won't set you up for life

If it's not clear already, it's highly doubtful Lucid stock will be a big winner any time soon. Given its low vehicle production output, lack of profitability, ongoing need for cash, and high debt, there isn't much to be excited about with this stock right now, and it's doubtful its shares will even be able to outpace the market -- let alone set you up for life.

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Chris Neiger has positions in Rivian Automotive. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft and General Motors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.