Oil Prices Rise Following OPEC+ Decision to Slow Output Increases Starting in October

Oil prices edged higher early Monday, recovering some ground lost last week, after OPEC+ agreed to moderate its pace of output increases starting in October amid concerns over weakening global demand.

Brent crude rose 34 cents, or 0.5%, to $65.84 per barrel by 0047GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate(WTI) crude climbed 30 cents, or 0.5% to $62.17 per barrel. Both benchmarks had dropped more than 2% on Friday following a weak U.S. jobs report that clouded the demand outlook for energy, marking a weekly decline exceeding 3%.

OPEC+, the coalition of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia, and other allies, reached a decision on Sunday to continue raising oil production from October, driven largely by Saudi Arabia’s push to reclaim market share. However, the agreed output increases will be significantly slower than previous months.

Since April, OPEC+ has incrementally boosted production after years of cuts aimed at supporting prices. In a surprise move given concerns over a potential oil surplus during the upcoming northern hemisphere winter, eight members of the group will raise output by just 137,000 barrels per day in October. This increase is considerably lower than the roughly 555,000 bpd added in September and August, and 411,000 bpd in June and July.

Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities, commented, "The oil market rebounded slightly, supported by relief over OPEC+’s modest output hike and a technical bounce following last week’s decline." He noted that expectations of tighter supply driven by possible new U.S. sanctions on Russia are also providing some support but cautioned that downward pressure is likely to continue as supply grows.

Meanwhile, Russia intensified its military offensive, launching its largest airstrike of the conflict on Ukraine on Sunday. Ukrainian officials reported that the attack set fire to Kyiv’s main government building and killed at least four people, including an infant.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that European leaders would visit Washington on Monday and Tuesday to discuss efforts to resolve the Russia-Ukraine war. While expressing dissatisfaction with the current situation, Trump maintained optimism about a near-term settlement.

The European Union reaffirmed its plan to phase out Russian oil imports by 2028, with the EU energy chief telling Reuters on Friday that no pressure had been received from Washington to accelerate this deadline.