TSMC Smiles, Apple Panics? Trump’s “1:1” Chip Rule Could Reshape Tech Supply Chains

TradingKey - To reduce reliance on overseas semiconductors, the Trump administration is preparing a radical new policy: requiring chipmakers to produce in the United States a volume of chips equal to the amount their customers import from abroad. Companies that fail to maintain this “1:1” ratio over time could face steep additional tariffs.

The plan aims to reshape global supply chains and ensure U.S. technological self-reliance in critical sectors. According to sources, this initiative operationalizes Trump’s earlier promise of “investment for tariff relief” — offering tech firms protection from semiconductor tariffs as high as 100% if they significantly increase domestic investment.

However, achieving precise parity between domestic production and overseas imports is far more complex than simply building new factories. On one hand, chips produced overseas are cheaper and supported by mature supply networks. On the other, constructing new U.S. fabrication plants takes years, making it difficult to close the gap in the short term.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has already discussed the proposal with industry executives, emphasizing its importance for national economic security. For decades, American tech companies have relied heavily on advanced chips manufactured in Taiwan, a region whose geopolitical vulnerability is seen as a potential supply chain “single point of failure.”

The new rule would pose significant challenges for major multinational buyers like Apple and Dell, forcing them to track the origin of every chip in their products and coordinate closely with suppliers to rebalance sourcing. In contrast, foundries expanding U.S. capacity — including TSMC, Micron Technology, and GlobalFoundries — could gain stronger pricing power and strategic leverage.

While White House spokespersons have labeled recent reports as “speculative,” the administration has already launched a national security review of semiconductor imports, after which the new rules could be formally introduced.

Currently, subsidies from the 2022 CHIPS Act have failed to fully resolve the “who pays?” dilemma — most customers still favor lower-cost overseas production.

By wielding tariffs as a lever, Trump seeks to forcibly reverse market dynamics. Yet, practical hurdles remain, especially for cutting-edge or specialized chips that cannot currently be manufactured at scale in the U.S. The success of this ambitious plan will depend on balancing national security goals with technological and economic realities.