ASML Poised to Be the Ultimate AI Winner, Bolstered by Wall Street as Oracle, Intel Surge

TradingKey - In the two-year U.S. bull market, Nvidia, the quintessential “picks and shovels” play of the AI era, has been seen as a guaranteed winner in any AI-driven trade. But as Nvidia faces tightening chip export restrictions, Wall Street is shifting focus upstream — to ASML, the Dutch semiconductor equipment giant.

As of September 22, three major Wall Street firms have upgraded ASML’s stock rating over the past month alone — with Morgan Stanley being the latest to turn bullish.

In a recent report, Morgan Stanley analysts highlighted multiple growth drivers for ASML through 2027, anticipating that logic and memory chipmakers will ramp up capacity over the next two years, boosting demand for ASML’s advanced lithography systems. As a result, the firm upgraded ASML to Overweight (Buy).

Since early September, fueled by news of Oracle’s massive OpenAI orders and Nvidia’s investment in Intel, ASML’s U.S.-listed shares have surged about 26%. Its market capitalization has now surpassed software giant SAP SE and luxury leader LVMH, making it the most valuable company in Europe.

Last week, Nvidia’s partnership with Intel — involving equity investment and co-development of chips — weighed on semiconductor peers like AMD and ARM. However, because lithography machines are essential to semiconductor manufacturing, and ASML holds an unrivaled monopoly in this space, the collaboration could actually make ASML the biggest beneficiary.

Bank of America recently raised its price target on ASML from €724 to €941, noting that as Intel’s long-standing supplier of lithography equipment, ASML stands to gain significantly from Intel’s accelerated capital spending and expanded equipment procurement.

Year-to-date, ASML’s stock has risen 34.49%, slightly outperforming Nvidia’s 31.56% gain.