Will iPhone 17 Lift Apple’s Stock? JPMorgan Bets on China, Citi Skeptical on Innovation

TradingKey - Ahead of Apple’s (AAPL) annual fall launch event on September 9, Pacific Time, where the iPhone 17 series is expected to debut, Wall Street remains cautious — viewing the new models as incrementally improved but not revolutionary. Citi slightly raised its 2025 iPhone shipment forecast, while JPMorgan sees potential upside in iPhone 17 Air and stronger demand from China.

In addition to the standard iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro, and iPhone 17 Pro Max, Apple is expected to spotlight a new ultra-thin model: the iPhone 17 Air.

According to JPMorgan analysts, the iPhone 17 and iPhone 17 Pro Max may retain pricing similar to their predecessors, while the iPhone 17 Air could see a price increase of up to $50, and the iPhone 17 Pro by as much as $100.

Samik Chatterjee, JPMorgan analyst, said in his latest report that since most hardware updates have already leaked from the supply chain, Apple’s fall events typically don’t deliver big surprises.However, he added that the iPhone 17 Air’s final form factor and stronger-than-expected demand from China, supported by government subsidies, could provide a positive catalyst for Apple’s stock.

Chatterjee cited supply chain sources indicating that the iPhone 17 Air, designed for extreme thinness, is over 2.0 mm thinner than the Pro models — making it the thinnest iPhone ever. If consumer response is positive, the market could react favorably.

Pricing in China will be critical to sales performance, as the country’s current smartphone upgrade subsidy program offers a 15% discount on devices priced below RMB 6,000. If Apple positions more iPhone 17 models under this threshold, it could significantly boost overall sales in China.

Like JPMorgan, Citi also noted in its latest report that AI-powered features will be key to driving iPhone 17 sales.

However, Citi emphasized that while new designs have historically boosted iPhone appeal, the iPhone 17 lineup remains in a phase of incremental updates, not a major innovation cycle.

Based on Citi’s supply chain checks, the 2025 iPhone 17 series shipment forecast is 82 million units, only slightly above the 81 million for the iPhone 16 series — suggesting the new phones may not trigger a broad wave of upgrades.

Citi believes Apple’s key growth drivers will come from next year’s major product updates:

• AI-enhanced Siri
• Foldable iPhone
• Vision Pro 2

The bank highlighted that a foldable iPhone would represent true form-factor innovation for Apple, and consumer interest in foldables has risen to 60% in supply chain surveys.