Jackson Hole Central Bank Summit: What Signal Will Powell Send? And What’s Next on Trump’s Tariff Agenda? 【The week ahead】

TradingKey - U.S. stock markets delivered solid gains last week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rising 0.94% and 0.81% respectively, both closing at new all-time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.74%, just shy of reclaiming the 45,000 mark.

This week, global investors will turn their attention to Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver a keynote speech at 10 p.m. Beijing time on Friday. His remarks are expected to offer fresh insights into consumer behavior and the central bank’s evolving monetary policy outlook.

Markets will also digest the release of the latest FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes, with investors closely watching the language around June’s weak jobs report and inflation data—factors that could ultimately determine the timing of the first rate cut.

On the equity front, Walmart will report its second-quarter earnings this week. The retail giant forecasts an operating margin of 4.2% for the year, still below its 2010 peak of 6.1%. Meanwhile, Google is scheduled to hold its hardware launch event at 1 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, where it is expected to unveil a new lineup of smartphones.

Fed to Release Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Markets will also digest the release of the latest FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes, with investors closely watching the language around June’s weak jobs report and inflation data—factors that could ultimately determine the timing of the first rate cut.

On the equity front, Walmart will report its second-quarter earnings this week. The retail giant forecasts an operating margin of 4.2% for the year, still below its 2010 peak of 6.1%. Meanwhile, Google is scheduled to hold its hardware launch event at 1 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, where it is expected to unveil a new lineup of smartphones.

Fed to Release Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release the full minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on July 29–30. The document is expected to shed light on the debate behind the vote: beyond the two dissenters, how many other participants signaled a dovish shift in internal discussions? What conditions did the majority who favored holding rates steady attach to their stance? These details could shape the policy threshold heading into the September meeting.

At the Fed’s previous monetary policy meeting two weeks ago, policymakers decided to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 4.25%–4.50%. However, the decision was marked by a rare public split: Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman voted to cut rates by 25 basis points immediately. Nick Timiraos, widely regarded as the "Fed’s voice" in financial journalism, interpreted the dissent as evidence that consensus among Fed officials is fraying amid growing debate over the economic and inflationary impact of tariffs.

Can Walmart (WMT.US) Deliver a Q2 Earnings Surprise?

Thursday is a key moment for Wall Street as Walmart (WMT.US) prepares to release its second-quarter earnings. The retail giant faces mounting challenges from Trump-era trade policies, including looming tariffs, amid ongoing consumer sentiment fragility.

Analysts broadly expect Walmart’s adjusted earnings per share to land between 72 and 73 cents, representing a year-over-year increase of 7.46%. Consolidated net income is projected to reach $5.755 billion, up from $4.501 billion in the same period last year. Revenue is forecast in the range of $174 billion to $175.6 billion, reflecting year-over-year growth of more than 5.6%.

Selected Economic Data

Tuesday: U.S. July Housing Starts (Annualized, in thousands)

Wednesday: Eurozone July CPI Year-over-Year Final Reading

Thursday: U.S. August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash Estimate

This week's featured events

Tuesday: U.S. President Donald Trump holds a multilateral meeting with European leaders.

Wednesday: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks at a World Economic Forum event.

Friday: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers a speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium.

Company Financial Report

U.S. Stocks

Tuesday: XPeng (XPEV.N), Home Depot (HD.US)

Wednesday: Baidu (BIDU.O), Futu Holdings (FUTU.O)

Thursday: Walmart (WMT.US)

Hong Kong Stocks

Tuesday: Xiaomi Group (01810.HK), PopMart International (09992.HK)

Wednesday: Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388.HK), PopMart International (09992.HK)

Thursday: Bilibili (BILI.US)