AUD: Weaker exports expected – Commerzbank

On Monday, the Australian government presented its quarterly forecasts for the mining and export of metals and energy, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

Decline in commodity export prices to negatively impact the AUD

"It expects exports in these two categories to slow further over the coming months. Overall, the government expects revenues from exports of raw materials and energy to be around 4% lower in AUD terms in the coming fiscal year (which begins today, 1 July, in Australia), before falling by a further 4.8% in the following 12 months. This is despite export volumes being expected to rise."

"This is particularly relevant for Australia, given that around two-thirds of its exports consist of non-edible raw materials and energy. A c over the coming months. Admittedly, our price forecasts for important Australian commodities are somewhat more optimistic than those of the Australian government."

"However, we are more pessimistic about volume expectations, particularly given our cautious growth forecast for China."