Brent: Supply risks support prices – Danske Bank

Danske Bank’s Danske Research Team notes Brent crude trading near USD 97 as renewed US-Iran strikes around the Strait of Hormuz raise concerns over prolonged disruptions to Middle East energy flows. The bank highlights OPEC+’s decision to keep output policy unchanged and likely pause further increases in Q4, but stresses that actual supply control remains constrained by ongoing Iran-related disruptions.

Middle East risks keep Brent elevated

"In geopolitics, Brent crude is trading around USD 97/bbl this morning, extending last week's gains, as renewed US-Iran strikes on commercial shipping around the Strait of Hormuz raise concerns over prolonged disruptions to Middle East energy flows. In the Ukraine war, weekend talks by Witkoff and Kushner in Moscow and Kyiv sought to revive earlier peace proposals, but ended without a breakthrough."

"In commodities, OPEC+ kept oil output policy unchanged for October on Sunday."

"According to Reuters sources, the group is likely to pause further output increases in Q4 while it reviews 2027 quota baselines."

"More broadly, however, OPEC+'s ability to steer actual supply and prices remains limited as long as the Iran conflict continues to disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz."

"After an intraday low of USD 93 per bbl, the Brent oil futures contract has risen and currently trades around USD 97 per bbl, after the US and Iran exchanged attacks over the weekend."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)