BoJ to raise interest rates again in Q4 — Reuters poll
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise the interest rate by at least 25 basis points (bps) again by the year-end, according to nearly two-thirds of economists in a Reuters poll, up from just over half a month ago.
Additional takeaways
67 of 73 economists (92%) expect no change at next policy meeting in September.
45 of 71 economists (63%) expect BOJ to raise rates to 0.75% in Q4 2025 (up from 54% last month).
Of 40 economists specifying a timeline for the BOJ to move, 38% see the move coming in October, 18% in December, 30% for January next year.
22 of 29 economists either strongly or somewhat approve of the US-Japan trade deal.
21 of 31 economists feel concerned about fiscal expansion pressure after LDP upper house election loss.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.03% higher on the day at 147.35.
Bank of Japan FAQs
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.
A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
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