EUR: We may see 1.1250 after all – ING

A week ago, we were thinking that EUR/USD could retrace to the 1.1250 area, and it's taken some time, but we may get there after all, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

EUR/USD ro trade at 1.13 at the end of the quarter

"The heart of the story is some risk premium coming out of US asset markets and the dollar. Many European markets are closed for the Labour Day public holiday, but EUR/USD could drift towards the 1.1250/60 area unless the ISM figure has a big miss on the downside."

"In terms of the European Central Bank, the market now prices between two and three more 25bp cuts this year, and a dovish ECB remains a key restraining factor for EUR/USD. As per our last FX Talking, we've got an end-quarter EUR/USD forecast at 1.13."

"We may be over-analysing things, but EUR/CHF is looking a little soft despite the bounce back in equities. The concern here remains that the Swiss National Bank cannot be as dovish as the ECB and is also more limited when it comes to FX intervention. A return to the 0.92 area looks like the bias, especially if the current risk environment does not hold."